{"id":367047,"date":"2026-01-23T13:56:51","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:56:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=367047"},"modified":"2026-01-25T19:30:21","modified_gmt":"2026-01-25T18:30:21","slug":"cesky-hydrometeorologicky-ustav-z-nedele-na-pondeli-a-v-pondeli-rano-a-dopoledne-nas-ceka-velmi-zajimava-situace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=367047","title":{"rendered":"\u010cESK\u00dd HYDROMETEOROLOGICK\u00dd \u00daSTAV: Z ned\u011ble na pond\u011bl\u00ed a v pond\u011bl\u00ed r\u00e1no a dopoledne n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 situace"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Na\u0161e \u00fazem\u00ed ovlivn\u00ed tlakov\u00e1 n\u00ed\u017ee, kter\u00e1 bude postupovat z oblasti Jadranu nad na\u0161e \u00fazem\u00ed. N\u00ed\u017ee p\u0159inese krom\u011b sr\u00e1\u017eek i velk\u00e9 prostorov\u00e9 rozd\u00edly v teplot\u00e1ch a t\u00edm p\u00e1dem i skupenstv\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek sn\u00edh\/d\u00e9\u0161\u0165. Z\u00e1pad a jihoz\u00e1pad \u010cech by m\u011bl b\u00fdt s velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed ve studen\u00e9m sektoru n\u00ed\u017ee a zde by m\u011blo b\u011bhem ve\u010dera\/noci na pond\u011bl\u00ed a patrn\u011b i v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b pond\u011bl\u00ed sn\u011b\u017eit.<\/h6>\n

\u010c\u00edm v\u00edce na v\u00fdchod ale p\u016fjdeme, t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed budou teploty a sr\u00e1\u017eky budou postupn\u011b de\u0161\u0165ov\u00e9, nejen v ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch, ale patrn\u011b i vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch poloh\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edm panuje ale nejistota nad t\u00edm, kde p\u0159esn\u011b bude hranice sn\u011b\u017een\u00ed, proto\u017ee p\u0159esn\u00e1 trajektorie tlakov\u00e9 n\u00ed\u017ee (i jej\u00ed na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed), a dal\u0161\u00ed jej\u00ed vlastnosti nejsou v tuto chv\u00edli zcela jasn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Jako p\u0159\u00edklad d\u00e1v\u00e1me n\u00ed\u017ee pravd\u011bpodobnost alespo\u0148 5 cm sn\u011bhu z modelu ECMWF do pond\u011bln\u00edho ve\u010dera (ta zat\u00edm kv\u016fli nejistot\u011b nen\u00ed vysok\u00e1) a mno\u017estv\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek z jednotliv\u00fdch ans\u00e1mblov\u00fdch b\u011bh\u016f pro celkov\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky (graf) modelu ICON EU pro \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice. Vid\u00edme velk\u00fd rozptyl jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f ans\u00e1mblu (jednotliv\u00e9 barevn\u00e9 k\u0159ivky), co\u017e zna\u010d\u00ed zat\u00edm velkou nejistotu. Jeden cluster (skupina) ans\u00e1mbl\u016f odhaduje sp\u00ed\u0161e ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00fahrny v \u0159\u00e1dech jednotek mm (~cm) sn\u011bhu, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed je ale nahu\u0161t\u011bno i pro hodnoty kolem 8 a\u017e 9 mm (~cm). Hodnoty nad 10 mm jsou v tuto chv\u00edli m\u00e1lo pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 a nazna\u010duje je jen n\u011bkolik \u010dlen\u016f.<\/p>\n

Jist\u00e9 ale je, \u017ee tyto situace dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed p\u0159ekvapit – zejm\u00e9na mno\u017estv\u00edm sr\u00e1\u017eek, bude tedy zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 sledovat dal\u0161\u00ed aktualizace model\u016f, zejm\u00e9na t\u011bch s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm rozli\u0161en\u00edm, kter\u00e9 budou k dispozici b\u011bhem v\u00edkendu. Kdo v\u00ed, t\u0159eba se Z a JZ \u010cech do\u010dk\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b p\u011bkn\u00e9 sn\u011bhov\u00e9 nad\u00edlky. Uvid\u00edme.<\/p>\n

N\u00ed\u017ee: Pravd\u011bpodobnost 5 cm sn\u011bhu za 24 hod (model ECMWF), akumulace sr\u00e1\u017eek pro \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice – jednotliv\u00e9 ans\u00e1mblov\u00e9 \u010dleny (zdroj: Kachelmann) a poloha tlakov\u00e9 n\u00ed\u017ee v pond\u011bl\u00ed k r\u00e1nu (zat\u00edm velmi orienta\u010dn\u00ed).<\/p>\n

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\u010cESK\u00dd HYDROMETEOROLOGICK\u00dd \u00daSTAV<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n

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V\u00fdstrahy \u010cesk\u00e9ho hydrometeorologick\u00e9ho \u00fastavu pro regiony a m\u011bsta najdete ZDE<\/a><\/h4>\n
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Informujeme:<\/h6>\n

\u010cESK\u00dd HYDROMETEOROLOGICK\u00dd \u00daSTAV: P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed pro ji\u017en\u00ed \u010cechy do konce t\u00fddne<\/a><\/h4>\n
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