{"id":362677,"date":"2025-11-26T13:52:40","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T12:52:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=362677"},"modified":"2025-11-27T15:26:24","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T14:26:24","slug":"michal-skorepa-zakladni-scenare-dalsiho-osudu-navrhu-statniho-rozpoctu-na-rok-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=362677","title":{"rendered":"MICHAL SKO\u0158EPA: Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e dal\u0161\u00edho osudu n\u00e1vrhu st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu na rok 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
Sn\u011bmovna pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b (snad je\u0161t\u011b dnes) poslechne doporu\u010den\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho v\u00fdboru PSP vr\u00e1tit n\u00e1vrh st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu vl\u00e1d\u011b k\u00a0p\u0159epracov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0lh\u016ftou 20 dn\u00ed (to je nejkrat\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1konem uva\u017eovan\u00e1 lh\u016fta pr p\u0159epracov\u00e1n\u00ed; nejdel\u0161\u00ed je 30 dn\u00ed).<\/h6>\n

\"\"Jak\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje p\u0159ipadaj\u00ed v \u00favahu? Pokud by vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed koalice cht\u011bla nav\u00fd\u0161it rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje (z \u010deho\u017e ji mnoz\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i podez\u00edraj\u00ed), napadaj\u00ed m\u011b tyto \u010dty\u0159i mo\u017enosti:<\/p>\n

(1) Uvoln\u011bn\u00ed limitu pro struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit novelizac\u00ed z\u00e1kona o pravidlech rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 odpov\u011bdnosti (ZoPRO) s od\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00edm, \u017ee je to nutn\u00e9 vzhledem k tomu, v jak zoufal\u00e9m stavu (dle u\u017e pronesen\u00fdch slov z\u00e1stupc\u016f vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalice) je ekonomika po \u010dty\u0159ech letech vl\u00e1dnut\u00ed Fialova kabinetu.<\/p>\n

(2) Uvoln\u011bn\u00ed limitu pro struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit novelizac\u00ed ZoPRO s odkazem na nutnost nav\u00fd\u0161it dotaci ze st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu ve prosp\u011bch St\u00e1tn\u00edho fondu dopravn\u00ed infrastruktury na investice (ide\u00e1ln\u011b on\u011bch cca 37 miliard korun, o kter\u00e9 v\u00fddaje fondu zva\u017eovan\u00e9 ve vl\u00e1dn\u00edm n\u00e1vrhu jeho rozpo\u010dtu p\u0159evy\u0161uj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy). Tento konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 jist\u011b stoj\u00ed za zv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed, proto\u017ee financov\u00e1n\u00ed investic na dluh je v po\u0159\u00e1dku \u2013 viz nap\u0159\u00edklad m\u016fj koment\u00e1\u0159 k hrazen\u00ed dobr\u00fdch ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch investic na dluh ZDE<\/strong><\/a>. (Pro ekonomick\u00e9 fajn\u0161mekry: ve skute\u010dnosti je \u201edobr\u00fd\u201c deficit nikoliv jednodu\u0161e ten, kter\u00fd odpov\u00edd\u00e1 objemu investic, n\u00fdbr\u017e ten, kter\u00fd je sou\u010dtem \u010dist\u00fdch investic a dopad\u016f ekonomick\u00e9ho cyklu.)<\/p>\n

(3) P\u0159edlo\u017een\u00ed nov\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fddaji a vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edjmy d\u00edky lep\u0161\u00edmu v\u00fdb\u011bru dan\u00ed (je ov\u0161em ot\u00e1zka, jak by se k vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3ze inkasa dan\u00ed postavil V\u00fdbor pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy, jeho\u017e m\u00e1m tu \u010dest b\u00fdt p\u0159edsedou).<\/p>\n

(4) V prvn\u00edm \u010dten\u00ed schv\u00e1len\u00ed deficitu v dnes navrhovan\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i 286 mld. K\u010d, ale v druh\u00e9m \u010dten\u00ed nahrazen\u00ed dvojice speci\u00e1ln\u00edch nadlimitn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f (p\u016fj\u010dka na Dukovany II a v\u00fddaje na obranu nad 2 % HDP) jin\u00fdmi, z pohledu nov\u00e9 koalice prioritn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fddaji.<\/p>\n

Tato zm\u011bna by byla nez\u00e1konn\u00e1, pokud by ji ud\u011blala rovnou vl\u00e1da ve sv\u00e9m n\u00e1vrhu, ale nebude proti z\u00e1konu, pokud se odehraje a\u017e ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b. Z pravidel popsan\u00fdch v ZoPRO a v jin\u00fdch z\u00e1konech toti\u017e sice pro rok 2026 plyne schodek maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 237 mld. K\u010d plus mo\u017enost nav\u00edc ud\u011blat pouze zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 dva konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed speci\u00e1ln\u00ed nadlimitn\u00ed v\u00fddaje v objemu 49 mld. K\u010d (odtud celkov\u00fd deficit 237 + 49 = 286 mld. K\u010d), nicm\u00e9n\u011b tyto z\u00e1konn\u00e9 po\u017eadavky se vztahuj\u00ed na vl\u00e1dn\u00ed n\u00e1vrh jdouc\u00ed do sn\u011bmovny, nikoliv na v\u00fdsledek poslaneck\u00e9ho hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ze sn\u011bmovny.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b varianta, kdy sn\u011bmovna p\u0159ece jen schv\u00e1l\u00ed p\u016fvodn\u011b navr\u017een\u00fd schodek (286 mld. K\u010d) coby jakousi pak u\u017e neprorazitelnou sko\u0159\u00e1pku, ale uvnit\u0159 t\u00e9to sko\u0159\u00e1pky schv\u00e1l\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b jin\u00e9 ne\u017e p\u016fvodn\u011b vl\u00e1dou navr\u017een\u00e9 slo\u017een\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f, byla on\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em, p\u0159ed kter\u00fdm (aspo\u0148 jsem to tak pochopil) cht\u011bl varovat ministr Stanjura, kdy\u017e jako podm\u00ednku pro znovuzasl\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edho n\u00e1vrhu do sn\u011bmovny \u017e\u00e1dal, aby nov\u00e1 koalice sl\u00edbila, \u017ee v rozpo\u010dtu ony dva nadlimitn\u00ed v\u00fddaje zachov\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1m\u011bna t\u011bchto dvou nadlimitn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f za jin\u00e9 by v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i prob\u011bhla cestou mnohamiliardov\u00fdch pozm\u011b\u0148ovac\u00edch n\u00e1vrh\u016f poslanc\u016f vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed vl\u00e1dy. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento poslaneck\u00fd \u201ering voln\u00fd\u201c je probl\u00e9m, p\u0159ed kter\u00fdm jsem ned\u00e1vno varoval pro zm\u011bnu j\u00e1 (ZDE<\/a><\/u><\/strong>\u00a0a p\u0159edt\u00edm i\u00a0ZDE<\/a><\/u><\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Postup nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed ide\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b n\u00e1vrhu st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu by spo\u010d\u00edval v tom, \u017ee sn\u011bmovna skute\u010dn\u011b n\u00e1vrh odm\u00edtne, ale re\u00e1ln\u011b za\u010dne projedn\u00e1vat a\u017e n\u00e1vrh, kter\u00fd p\u0159iprav\u00ed nov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da a kter\u00fd d\u00edky tomu bude v souladu se v\u0161emi z\u00e1kony a projde v\u0161emi pot\u0159ebn\u00fdmi procedurami zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edmi kvalitu n\u00e1vrhu. Takov\u00fd n\u00e1vrh n\u00e1sledn\u011b ve sn\u011bmovny projde p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdmi \u2013 nejsp\u00ed\u0161 u\u017e jen nevelk\u00fdmi \u2013 \u00fapravami. \u010casovou n\u00e1ro\u010dnost tohoto postupu lze sn\u00ed\u017eit t\u00edm, \u017ee nov\u00fd n\u00e1vrh vyjde do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry z n\u00e1vrhu dosluhuj\u00edc\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, ale i v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se \u010cesko jist\u011b nevyhnulo n\u011bkolikat\u00fddenn\u00edmu nebo n\u011bkolikam\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmu rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9mu provizoriu. Provizorium je pro fungov\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho sktoru nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9, ale nikoliv fat\u00e1ln\u00ed. \u0160lo by o cenu, kterou bychom zaplatili za p\u0159\u00edpravu rozpo\u010dtu, kter\u00fd je kvalitn\u00ed a v souladu s duchem a literou v\u0161ech norem ohledn\u011b rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 odpov\u011bdnosti.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Michal SKO\u0158EPA, ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a p\u0159edseda V\u00fdboru pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

Jin\u00e9 \u010dl\u00e1nky autora:<\/h4>\n

MICHAL SKO\u0158EPA: Spor o st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det na rok 2026<\/a><\/h6>\n
MICHAL SKO\u0158EPA: N\u011bkolik pozn\u00e1mek k lo\u0148sk\u00e9mu st\u00e1tn\u00edmu rozpo\u010dtu<\/a><\/h6>\n
ANAL\u00ddZA \u010cS. SPO\u0158ITELNY: Cena p\u0161enice versus cena chleba (Michal Sko\u0159epa)<\/a><\/h6>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sn\u011bmovna pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":362678,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,85,121],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/26\/skorepa-261125.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/362677"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=362677"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/362677\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":362679,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/362677\/revisions\/362679"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/362678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=362677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=362677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=362677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}