{"id":359479,"date":"2025-10-25T15:53:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-25T14:53:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=359479"},"modified":"2025-10-26T23:32:57","modified_gmt":"2025-10-26T22:32:57","slug":"cesky-hydrometeorologicky-ustav-bude-zima-bude-mraz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=359479","title":{"rendered":"\u010cESK\u00dd HYDROMETEOROLOGICK\u00dd \u00daSTAV: Bude zima? Bude mr\u00e1z?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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“Ude\u0159\u00ed nejtu\u017e\u0161\u00ed zima za posledn\u00ed dek\u00e1du. Experti popsali fenom\u00e9n vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed nezvykl\u00e9 mrazy.”…..” Up\u0159esnili p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f na zimu. Jeden m\u011bs\u00edc p\u0159inese v\u00fdraznou zm\u011bnu.”<\/em><\/h6>\n
Je podzim a to je z\u00e1rove\u0148 doba, kdy se pravideln\u011b objevuj\u00ed nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zaru\u010den\u00e9 \u010dl\u00e1nky, jak\u00e1 bude leto\u0161n\u00ed zima. V\u011bt\u0161inou nemaj\u00ed ale s fakty nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho.<\/h6>\n

V leto\u0161n\u00edch p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvc\u00edch se velmi \u010dasto zmi\u0148uje jev zvan\u00fd La Ni\u00f1a, kter\u00fd opravdu bude m\u00edt v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku patrn\u011b p\u0159echodn\u00fd m\u00edrn\u011b ochlazuj\u00edc\u00ed vliv. Tento jev ozna\u010duje velkoplo\u0161n\u00e9 ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch vrstev oce\u00e1nu v centr\u00e1ln\u00edch a v\u00fdchodn\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stech Pacifiku. To m\u00e1 samoz\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vliv i na v\u011btrn\u00e9 a tlakov\u00e9 pole a distribuci sr\u00e1\u017eek zejm\u00e9na v oblasti severn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad do oblasti Kanady a na z\u00e1padn\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed USA p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed \u010dasto chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sn\u011bhovou nad\u00edlku.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1me, \u017ee vliv La Ni\u00f1a je jist\u00fdm opakem jevu El Ni\u00f1o, kter\u00fd naopak glob\u00e1ln\u011b teplotu m\u00edrn\u011b zvy\u0161uje. Oba tyto jevy pak prob\u00edhaj\u00ed na pozad\u00ed kontinu\u00e1ln\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny, kter\u00e1 ale nen\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u00e1, ale zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 dlouhodobou lidskou \u010dinnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Vliv jevu La Ni\u00f1a na Evropu ale rozhodn\u011b nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd a tak v\u00fdrazn\u00fd jako t\u0159eba v USA. Ve studi\u00edch, kter\u00e9 se statisticky zam\u011b\u0159ovaly na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd vliv tohoto jevu v Evrop\u011b, jsou sice nalezeny ur\u010dit\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly, ale rozhodn\u011b ne tak v\u00fdrazn\u00e9. Rozhodn\u011b nelze tvrdit, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edtomnost tohoto jevu automaticky znamen\u00e1 chladnou zimu u n\u00e1s.
\nZ dlouhodob\u00fdch v\u00fdhled\u016f n\u011bkter\u00fdch model\u016f nav\u00edc nevych\u00e1z\u00ed, \u017ee by n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed zima m\u011bla b\u00fdt v Evrop\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b chladn\u00e1, sp\u00ed\u0161e op\u011bt m\u00edrn\u011b nad pr\u016fm\u011brem, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b v r\u00e1mci pr\u016fm\u011bru. Co se t\u00fd\u010de p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 sn\u011bhov\u00e9 nad\u00edlky, tam je pro milovn\u00edky sn\u011bhu situace je\u0161t\u011b pesimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee modely nazna\u010duj\u00ed podnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed sn\u011bhu po oblast centr\u00e1ln\u00ed Evropy. Jinak tomu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zejm\u00e9na ve Skandin\u00e1vii, kde jsou naopak pom\u011brn\u011b robustn\u00ed sign\u00e1ly pro v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed sn\u011bhu.<\/p>\n

I v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by byla n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed zima sp\u00ed\u0161e tepl\u00e1, nem\u016f\u017eeme ale vylou\u010dit dal\u0161\u00ed jevy, kter\u00e9 mohou kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b p\u0159in\u00e9st i v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ochlazen\u00ed. Jedn\u00edm z nich je nap\u0159\u00edklad zeslaben\u00ed nebo \u00fapln\u00fd rozpad pol\u00e1rn\u00edho v\u00edru ve stratosf\u00e9\u0159e, po kter\u00e9m se zvy\u0161uje \u0161ance pr\u016fniku chladn\u00e9ho arktick\u00e9ho vzduchu i k n\u00e1m. Zda k n\u011b\u010demu takov\u00e9mu ale dojde b\u011bhem nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed zimy, to v tuto chv\u00edli nikdo nev\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00e1 tedy bude zima? Mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je dal\u0161\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b tepl\u00e1, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 zima a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u011b bohu\u017eel op\u011bt nev\u00fdrazn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

N\u00ed\u017ee:<\/strong> Celosv\u011btov\u00fd odhad teploty (vyj\u00e1d\u0159eno jako odchylka od pr\u016fm\u011bru) v prosinci dle dlouhodob\u00e9ho v\u00fdhledu modelu ECMWF a sch\u00e9ma jevu La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

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\u010cESK\u00dd HYDROMETEOROLOGICK\u00dd \u00daSTAV<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

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