{"id":333961,"date":"2025-01-09T14:31:06","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T13:31:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=333961"},"modified":"2025-01-11T20:05:49","modified_gmt":"2025-01-11T19:05:49","slug":"michal-skorepa-nekolik-poznamek-k-lonskemu-statnimu-rozpoctu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=333961","title":{"rendered":"MICHAL SKO\u0158EPA: N\u011bkolik pozn\u00e1mek k lo\u0148sk\u00e9mu st\u00e1tn\u00edmu rozpo\u010dtu"},"content":{"rendered":"<h6 class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Jak deficit celkov\u011b hodnotit<\/h6>\n<div class=\"-wm-elementToProof\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-333963 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/09\/michal-skorepa-sporitelna-242x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"242\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/09\/michal-skorepa-sporitelna-242x300.jpg 242w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/09\/michal-skorepa-sporitelna.jpg 247w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 242px) 100vw, 242px\" \/>Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed hospoda\u0159en\u00ed za cel\u00fd lo\u0148sk\u00fd rok skon\u010dilo deficitem 271 mld. K\u010d. \u00a0Vezmeme-li v \u00favahu rychl\u00fd r\u016fst mezd a zejm\u00e9na cen v posledn\u00edch letech, schodek ve skute\u010dnosti nen\u00ed tak velk\u00fd, jak se m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t. Pro korektn\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edho hospoda\u0159en\u00ed je nejlep\u0161\u00ed se d\u00edvat na tzv. struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit, tedy \u010d\u00edslo o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 od vlivu v\u00fdvoje ekonomiky a od mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f, jako byly nap\u0159\u00edklad n\u00e1klady na \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed dopad\u016f z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00fdch povodn\u00ed.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Toto o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo bude teprve publikov\u00e1no, a to jen pro cel\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance, tedy centr\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1du plus kraje plus obce plus zdravotn\u00ed poji\u0161\u0165ovny. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b z toho, \u017ee v\u00fdsledn\u00fd schodek skon\u010dil bl\u00edzko pl\u00e1nu, se d\u00e1 u\u017e te\u010f odhadovat, \u017ee mezi roky 2023 a 2024 se vl\u00e1d\u011b poda\u0159ilo posunout k \u00fasporn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu hospoda\u0159en\u00ed: za p\u0159edpokladu p\u0159ebytku ostatn\u00edch slo\u017eek ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i kolem 1 % HDP struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit samotn\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy dle m\u00fdch velmi hrub\u00fdch propo\u010dt\u016f klesl z cca 3,4 % HDP na cca 3 % HDP (co\u017e je t\u0159eba ocenit jako v\u00fdraz politick\u00e9 odvahy).<\/div>\n<div class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Pro rok 2025 u\u017e vl\u00e1da dal\u0161\u00ed podobn\u011b razantn\u00ed \u0161et\u0159en\u00ed nenapl\u00e1novala, nejsp\u00ed\u0161 ve snaze nezhor\u0161ovat sv\u016fj obraz p\u0159ed parlamentn\u00edmi volbami letos na podzim: struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed m\u00e1 z\u016fstat na podobn\u00e9 \u00farovni jako loni, tedy kolem 2 % HDP.<\/div>\n<h6 class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Kde vl\u00e1da \u0161et\u0159ila<\/h6>\n<div class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch oblast\u00ed, kde vl\u00e1da loni krotila v\u00fddaje nebo pos\u00edlila p\u0159\u00edjmy, jsou des\u00edtky \u2013 sta\u010d\u00ed si vzpomenout na soupis mnoha opat\u0159en\u00ed v r\u00e1mci takzvan\u00e9ho ozdravn\u00e9ho bal\u00ed\u010dku. Na stran\u011b p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f hr\u00e1lo objemov\u011b v\u00fdznamnou roli zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed zam\u011bstnaneck\u00e9ho pojistn\u00e9ho, kter\u00e9 mimochodem z m\u00e9ho pohledu nebylo dobr\u00fdm n\u00e1padem, proto\u017ee d\u00e1l zv\u011bt\u0161ilo mezeru v odvodov\u00e9 z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ei mezi zam\u011bstnanci a OSV\u010c.<\/div>\n<div class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Na stran\u011b v\u00fddaj\u016f byla kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm redukce dotac\u00ed. Ta se z\u0159ejm\u011b aspo\u0148 do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry poda\u0159ila: nap\u0159\u00edklad redukce objemu neinvesti\u010dn\u00edch firemn\u00edch dotac\u00ed mezi roky 2023 a 2024 byla pl\u00e1nov\u00e1na na 80 miliard korun a skute\u010dnost v\u010detn\u011b dopad\u016f povodn\u00ed byla 70 miliard korun.<\/div>\n<h6 class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0novelou z\u00e1kona o st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu<\/h6>\n<p class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Ministerstvo financ\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b s chut\u00ed zd\u016fraznilo, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00fd schodek skon\u010dil pod naposled schv\u00e1lenou \u010d\u00e1stkou 282 miliard korun, kter\u00e1 obsahovala i hrub\u00fd odhad mo\u017en\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f na n\u00e1pravu \u0161kod po povodn\u00edch. Tady je ale t\u0159eba p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee onen odhad povod\u0148ov\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f byl skute\u010dn\u011b jen velmi hrub\u00fd, tak\u017ee ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed skute\u010dnost nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm velk\u00fdm vl\u00e1dn\u00edm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm \u2013 nota bene pokud nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, jak\u00fd objem n\u00e1klad\u016f bude je\u0161t\u011b muset b\u00fdt hrazen z rozpo\u010dtu leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Ostatn\u011b na povodn\u011b \u0161lo z\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu 15 miliard korun, tak\u017ee pokud tuto \u010d\u00e1stku z\u00a0celkov\u00fdch skute\u010dn\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f ode\u010dteme, zjist\u00edme, \u017ee neb\u00fdt povodn\u00ed, byl by schodek 4 miliony korun nad p\u016fvodn\u00edm pl\u00e1nem. P\u0159\u00edsn\u011b vzato vlastn\u011b 20 miliard nad n\u00edm: dal\u0161\u00edmi 16 miliardami korun toti\u017e k lep\u0161\u00edmu kone\u010dn\u00e9mu \u010d\u00edslu vl\u00e1d\u011b pomohl tak\u00e9 p\u016fvodn\u011b nepl\u00e1novan\u00fd p\u0159evis p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z EU nad odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edmi v\u00fddaji.<\/p>\n<h6 class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Rozpo\u010det z\u00a0hlediska mezigenera\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e9rovosti<\/h6>\n<p class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Lo\u0148sk\u00fd deficit i po sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed o vliv ekonomiky a mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fddaje byl velmi orienta\u010dn\u011b o n\u011bjak\u00fdch t\u0159icet miliard vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e objem kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f. Jinak \u0159e\u010deno, na dluh byly financov\u00e1ny v\u0161echny investi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje (co\u017e je v po\u0159\u00e1dku), ale krom\u011b nich i \u010d\u00e1st lo\u0148sk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f na b\u011b\u017en\u00e9, neinvesti\u010dn\u00ed utr\u00e1cen\u00ed. Tato dluhov\u011b hrazen\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st lo\u0148sk\u00fdch b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f tedy bude fakticky zaplacena a\u017e z kapes poplatn\u00edk\u016f plat\u00edc\u00edch dan\u011b letos a v dal\u0161\u00edch letech. To se d\u00e1 ch\u00e1pat jako jist\u00e1 mezigenera\u010dn\u00ed nespravedlnost, proto\u017ee je t\u00edm poru\u0161eno takzvan\u00e9 zlat\u00e9 pravidlo ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed, podle n\u011bho\u017e by si ve\u0161ker\u00e9 b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fddaje v ka\u017ed\u00e9m roce m\u011bli uhradit poplatn\u00edci p\u0159\u00edmo v dan\u00e9m roce; sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed t\u011bchto b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f jsou i spl\u00e1tky existuj\u00edc\u00edho dluhu dan\u00e9ho d\u0159\u00edve proveden\u00fdmi a nyn\u00ed &#8220;konzumovan\u00fdmi&#8221; investicemi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-elementToProof\">Pro leto\u0161ek jsou navr\u017eeny investi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje v\u00a0objemu kolem \u010dtvrt bilion\u016f korun, zat\u00edmco schodek by m\u011bl b\u00fdt ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed (ofici\u00e1ln\u011b 241 miliard korun, ale po \u00faprav\u011b o vliv st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b ne zcela zdrav\u00e9 ekonomiky trochu ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed). Letos tedy hroz\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 poru\u0161en\u00ed zlat\u00e9ho pravidla na opa\u010dn\u00e9 stran\u011b: da\u0148ov\u00ed poplatn\u00edci zaplat\u00ed v tomto roce mo\u017en\u00e1 i \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bch n\u00e1klad\u016f na letos prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 investice, kter\u00e9 by m\u011bly b\u00fdt hrazeny a\u017e z kapes poplatn\u00edk\u016f v dal\u0161\u00edch letech.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Michal SKO\u0158EPA, e<\/b><strong>konom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a p\u0159edseda V\u00fdboru pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jak deficit <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":333965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,85,121],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/09\/ram-skorepa-090125.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/333961"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=333961"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/333961\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":333966,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/333961\/revisions\/333966"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/333965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=333961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=333961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=333961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}