{"id":325481,"date":"2024-10-16T08:47:53","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T07:47:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=325481"},"modified":"2024-10-17T12:26:24","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T11:26:24","slug":"vladimir-pikora-inflace-roste-ale-vlada-resi-sve-platy-kdy-se-probudi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=325481","title":{"rendered":"VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Inflace roste, ale vl\u00e1da \u0159e\u0161\u00ed sv\u00e9 platy \u2013 kdy se probud\u00ed?"},"content":{"rendered":"
V posledn\u00edch dnech se na \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u011b odehr\u00e1lo n\u011bkolik kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee situace je v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e by se na prvn\u00ed pohled zd\u00e1lo. \u010cerstv\u00e1 data za z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2024 potvrzuj\u00ed, \u017ee inflace st\u00e1le nepolevuje, maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby sice vzrostly, ale pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 a stavebn\u00ed produkce se nach\u00e1z\u00ed ve \u0161patn\u00e9m stavu. A co na to vl\u00e1da? Nic z\u00e1sadn\u00edho. M\u00edsto toho, aby \u0159e\u0161ila ekonomiku, star\u00e1 se o svoje platy a plat pan\u00ed prezidentov\u00e9.<\/h6>\n

\"\"Ceny potravin op\u011bt rostou \u2013 m\u00e1slo zdra\u017eilo o \u0161\u00edlen\u00fdch 43 %, ml\u00e9ko o 20 % a \u010dokol\u00e1dov\u00e9 v\u00fdrobky o 22 %. Pohonn\u00e9 hmoty se takt\u00e9\u017e vydaly sm\u011brem nahoru, co\u017e tla\u010d\u00ed na dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst cen, a to i p\u0159es o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee inflace kone\u010dn\u011b klesne.<\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdvoj m\u00e1 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed dopad na spot\u0159ebitele, kte\u0159\u00ed st\u00e1le \u010dekaj\u00ed na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ze strany \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky (\u010cNB). Ov\u0161em vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee inflace nekles\u00e1 podle pl\u00e1nu, se pravd\u011bpodobnost sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb nyn\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eila.<\/p>\n

Pro dom\u00e1cnosti to znamen\u00e1 jedin\u00e9: hypot\u00e9ky jsou st\u00e1le zbyte\u010dn\u011b drah\u00e9, a kdo u\u017e \u00fav\u011br na bydlen\u00ed m\u00e1, ten se d\u00e1l top\u00ed v hrozn\u00fdch spl\u00e1tk\u00e1ch. Guvern\u00e9r \u010cNB Ale\u0161 Michl si u\u017e za\u010dal st\u011b\u017eovat na v\u00fd\u0161i hypote\u010dn\u00edch sazeb a vysok\u00e9 mar\u017ee bank. Uvid\u00edme, zda slovn\u00ed intervence pom\u016f\u017ee. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bance v boji s inflac\u00ed nepom\u00e1h\u00e1 ani to, \u017ee m\u00e1 vl\u00e1da \u0161\u00edlen\u00e9 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 deficity, pro kter\u00e9 nen\u00ed ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Maloobchod: Dom\u00e1cnosti utr\u00e1cej\u00ed, ale za co?<\/h6>\n

Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby sice v srpnu meziro\u010dn\u011b vzrostly o 5,3 %, ale p\u0159i bli\u017e\u0161\u00edm pohledu zjist\u00edme, \u017ee r\u016fst je zp\u016fsoben p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm nepotravin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm zbo\u017e\u00edm, kde tr\u017eby vysko\u010dily o 16,8 procenta.<\/p>\n

Internetov\u00e9 obchody za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed boom s n\u00e1r\u016fstem tr\u017eeb o 16,1 %, co\u017e ukazuje, \u017ee lid\u00e9 utr\u00e1cej\u00ed za v\u011bci, kter\u00e9 nejsou nezbytn\u00e9. A pro\u010d? Vloni a p\u0159edloni jsme m\u011bli hrozn\u00fd propad re\u00e1ln\u00fdch tr\u017eeb. \u017divotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed se propadla. Nyn\u00ed u\u017e re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy trochu rostou a lid\u00e9 tedy nakupuj\u00ed to, co v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech odlo\u017eili.
\nTr\u017eby za prodej a opravy motorov\u00fdch vozidel meziro\u010dn\u011b poklesly o 0,4 %, co\u017e jasn\u011b nazna\u010duje, \u017ee lid\u00e9 se ve st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch zmatc\u00edch kolem aut nevyznaj\u00ed. Na jednu stranu je v\u0161ichni \u017eenou do elektrick\u00e9ho auta, ale selsk\u00fdm rozumem jim to ned\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl.<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fmysl: N\u011bmeck\u00fd probl\u00e9m a Green Deal<\/h6>\n

A co pr\u016fmysl? Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 produkce v \u010cR za prvn\u00edch osm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f roku 2024 dos\u00e1hla pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho indexu 98,7 %. Co to znamen\u00e1? Pokles! V kv\u011btnu a \u010dervnu se pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 produkce propadla pod 97 % oproti lo\u0148sku a jen srpnov\u00fd r\u016fst nad 101 % zabr\u00e1nil je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00edmu v\u00fdsledku. Ov\u0161em tento n\u00e1r\u016fst je pouze do\u010dasn\u00fd z\u00e1blesk, proto\u017ee kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 sektory jako t\u011b\u017eba a dob\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed propad o v\u00edce ne\u017e 9 procent.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem tohoto kolapsu je N\u011bmecko, kter\u00e9 kv\u016fli Green Dealu a p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdm ekologick\u00fdm regulac\u00edm stoj\u00ed a s n\u00edm i \u010desk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Zpracovatelsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, na kter\u00e9m \u010cesko tolik z\u00e1vis\u00ed, v lednu a\u017e srpnu zaznamenal jen 98,9 % lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu.<\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me snad od vl\u00e1dy, \u017ee na tuto situaci zareaguje? Jej\u00ed reakce je nulov\u00e1. Nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd pl\u00e1n, jak p\u0159ekonat d\u016fsledky n\u011bmeck\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 krize. \u010ce\u0161t\u00ed export\u00e9\u0159i jsou na pokraji sv\u00fdch sil a vl\u00e1da ne\u010dinn\u011b p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed.
\nStavebnictv\u00ed: \u010cek\u00e1n\u00ed na lep\u0161\u00ed \u010dasy<\/p>\n

Stavebnictv\u00ed je na tom podobn\u011b. Meziro\u010dn\u011b sice produkce vzrostla o 0,4 %, ale mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b poklesla o 1,6 %. Stavebn\u00ed povolen\u00ed klesla o 1,2 %, zah\u00e1jen\u00ed staveb nov\u00fdch byt\u016f o 11,3 % a dokon\u010den\u00ed o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 20 procent.
\nTo signalizuje, \u017ee develope\u0159i nev\u011bd\u00ed co d\u00e1l. Kdyby vid\u011bli r\u016f\u017eovou budoucnost, tak vid\u00edme r\u016fst zah\u00e1jen\u00e9 v\u00fdstavby. Co\u017e se ov\u0161em ned\u011bje.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u00e9 to je s dokon\u010den\u00fdmi byty. To signalizuje, \u017ee \u010dekaj\u00ed na lep\u0161\u00ed \u010dasy. A lid\u00e9 mezit\u00edm nemaj\u00ed kde bydlet nebo mus\u00ed platit \u0161\u00edlen\u00fd n\u00e1jem.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br: \u010cas na zm\u011bnu<\/h6>\n

Jak\u00fd je tedy verdikt? Ekonomika nem\u00e1 vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00fd r\u016fst. Pr\u016fmysl a stavebnictv\u00ed trp\u00ed. Tolik slibovan\u00e1 a op\u011bvovan\u00e1 digitalizace v\u00e1zne. Ka\u017ed\u00fd den n\u00e1s to stoj\u00ed ohromn\u00e9 pen\u00edze. Maloobchod sice za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 o\u017e\u00edvat, ale za cel\u00fd rok to zat\u00edm nen\u00ed nic ohromuj\u00edc\u00edho.<\/p>\n

No a spole\u010dnost\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 zpomalen\u00ed inflace pod dv\u011b procenta se mezit\u00edm odkl\u00e1d\u00e1, co\u017e ohro\u017euje p\u0159edpoklad zlevn\u011bn\u00ed hypot\u00e9k.<\/p>\n

Ekonomice chyb\u00ed strategie a n\u011bkdo, kdo by na v\u00fdvoj makroekonomick\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsel reagoval. Ekonomika \u010dek\u00e1 na nov\u00e9 volby a na n\u011bkoho, kdo bude m\u00edt pl\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Vladim\u00edr PIKORA, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ps\u00e1no pro Den\u00edk.to<\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

Jin\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky autora:<\/h6>\n

VLADIM\u0154 PIKORA: M\u00e1me tajn\u00fd evropsk\u00fd dluh, ale nev\u00edme, jak ho \u0159e\u0161it<\/a><\/h4>\n

VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Polsko n\u00e1s doh\u00e1n\u00ed ve v\u0161ech sm\u011brech. N\u011bkde je dokonce d\u00e1l ne\u017e my<\/a><\/h4>\n

VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Ceny nemovitost\u00ed zase rostou. Hypot\u00e9ky sice klesaj\u00ed, ale nestoj\u00ed to za \u0159e\u010d<\/a><\/h4>\n

VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: \u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad dnes zve\u0159ejnil data o \u010dervnov\u00e9m v\u00fdvoji cen v\u00fdrobc\u016f<\/a><\/h4>\n

VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: \u00darokov\u00e9 sazby d\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b klesaj\u00ed<\/a><\/h4>\n

VLADIM\u00cd PIKORA: Inflace brzd\u00ed. Otev\u00edr\u00e1 prostor k mal\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb<\/a><\/h4>\n

VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Pr\u016fmysl st\u00e1le pad\u00e1<\/a><\/h4>\n

VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy zase rostou<\/a><\/h4>\n

VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Benz\u00edn a nafta brut\u00e1ln\u011b zdra\u017e\u00ed<\/a><\/h4>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V posledn\u00edch <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":325620,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,85,121],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/16\/pikora-161024.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325481"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=325481"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325481\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":325622,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325481\/revisions\/325622"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/325620"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=325481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=325481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=325481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}