{"id":315961,"date":"2024-07-31T14:22:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-31T13:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=315961"},"modified":"2024-07-31T14:22:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-31T13:22:00","slug":"ceska-republika-pokrocila-teorie-informace-odhaluje-priciny-extremnich-jevu-nejen-v-pocasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=315961","title":{"rendered":"\u010cESK\u00c1 REPUBLIKA: Pokro\u010dil\u00e1 teorie informace odhaluje p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f (nejen) v po\u010das\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Milan Palu\u0161<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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V\u00fdkyvy po\u010das\u00ed, epileptick\u00e9 z\u00e1chvaty, geomagnetick\u00e9 bou\u0159e nebo krachy na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed v\u011bdce po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Popisuj\u00ed mechanismy vzniku t\u011bchto extr\u00e9mn\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed a navrhuj\u00ed metody v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed. V\u011bdci z \u00dastavu informatiky AV \u010cR v nov\u00e9 studii p\u0159edstavili metodu detekce kauzality pro data s extr\u00e9mn\u00edmi hodnotami, kter\u00e1 odhaluje t\u0159eba p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinu jarn\u00edch mraz\u016f, je\u017e zas\u00e1hly francouzsk\u00e9 vina\u0159e.<\/h6>\n

\"\"Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed jevy ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edrodu, pr\u016fmysl, zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, zdrav\u00ed i lidsk\u00e9 spole\u010denstv\u00ed jako celek. Ur\u010den\u00ed kauz\u00e1ln\u00edch vztah\u016f, tj. rozli\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny a n\u00e1sledk\u016f, je intenzivn\u011b se rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edm odv\u011btv\u00edm v\u011bdy. Matematici, fyzici, informatici a specialist\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00edch obor\u016f navrhuj\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed metody a vyv\u00edjej\u00ed po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9 algoritmy, je\u017e z experiment\u00e1ln\u00edch dat extrahuj\u00ed v\u011bdomosti o p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinn\u00fdch, kauz\u00e1ln\u00edch vztaz\u00edch. V\u011bdci tak ur\u010duj\u00ed, kter\u00e1 ze sledovan\u00fdch veli\u010din p\u0159edstavuje p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinu zkouman\u00fdch jev\u016f a proces\u016f.<\/p>\n

Obecn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zka p\u0159inesla konkr\u00e9tn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odpov\u011bdi<\/h6>\n

Navzdory zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9mu z\u00e1jmu o tyto oblasti p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b m\u00e1lo v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdch t\u00fdm\u016f kombinuje studium kauzality a extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f. Existuj\u00ed pr\u00e1ce, kter\u00e9 zji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed, zda extr\u00e9my v jedn\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed extr\u00e9my v jin\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9. V\u011bdci z \u00dastavu informatiky AV \u010cR si polo\u017eili obecn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zku: Kter\u00e1 ze dvou nebo v\u00edce potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch kauz\u00e1ln\u00edch prom\u011bnn\u00fdch zp\u016fsobuje extr\u00e9my v ovlivn\u011bn\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9, bez ohledu na to, jestli kauz\u00e1ln\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u00ed hodnoty obsahuje.<\/p>\n

Neboli: v konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jarn\u00edch mraz\u016f ve Francii je ovlivn\u011bnou prom\u011bnnou p\u0159\u00edzemn\u00ed teplota vzduchu, denn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br nebo minimum. Kauz\u00e1ln\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e9 jsou v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b t\u0159i: severoatlantick\u00e1 oscilace (NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation), Blocking Index (BI) a sibi\u0159sk\u00e1 tlakov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161e (SH, Siberian High). Ot\u00e1zka, kterou si v\u011bdci kladli, tedy zn\u011bla \u2013 zp\u016fsobuje extr\u00e9my v teplot\u011b severoatlantick\u00e1 oscilace, blocking index, nebo sibi\u0159sk\u00e1 tlakov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161e bez ohledu na to, jestli samy dosahuj\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00edch hodnot?<\/p>\n

Za mrazem sp\u00e1len\u00fdmi vinicemi stoj\u00ed dv\u011b ud\u00e1losti<\/h6>\n

Odpov\u011b\u010f poskytuje matematick\u00e1 a v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed metoda, kterou t\u00fdm veden\u00fd Milanem Palu\u0161em z \u00dastavu informatiky AV \u010cR p\u0159edstavil v presti\u017en\u00edm \u010dasopise Science Advances. Tato informatick\u00e1 metoda vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 konceptu R\u00e9nyiho entropie, jen\u017e p\u0159ekon\u00e1v\u00e1 standardn\u00ed Shannonovu teorii informace. Vyvinut\u00e9 algoritmy jsou testov\u00e1ny v \u0159ad\u011b numerick\u00fdch simulac\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u201eSimulace v\u017edy obsahuje t\u0159i prom\u011bnn\u00e9: jednu ovlivn\u011bnou, effect variable, a dv\u011b kauz\u00e1ln\u00ed, cause variables. Jedna cause variable zp\u016fsobuje posun pr\u016fm\u011bru, resp. v\u0161ech hodnot v effect variable, druh\u00e1 specificky vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 extr\u00e9my v effect variable,<\/em>\u201c nasti\u0148uje Milan Palu\u0161.<\/p>\n

Zp\u011bt k p\u0159\u00edkladu mraz\u016f, kter\u00e9 zas\u00e1hly zejm\u00e9na francouzsk\u00e9 vina\u0159e<\/h6>\n

\u201eNAO a BI typicky posouvaj\u00ed v\u0161echny hodnoty. Vysok\u00e1 sibi\u0159sk\u00e1 tlakov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161e (SH) vede k chladn\u00fdm extr\u00e9m\u016fm, ale vy\u017eaduje, aby severoatlantick\u00e1 oscilace (NAO) nebyla pozitivn\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b ve francouzsk\u00fdch jarn\u00edch datech je vid\u011bt v\u00fdznam sibi\u0159sk\u00e9 tlakov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161e nejl\u00e9pe \u2013 pokud je vysok\u00e1 a NAO negativn\u00ed, vedou k jarn\u00edm mraz\u016fm, sama negativn\u00ed NAO nesta\u010d\u00ed. To ale neplat\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, kde negativn\u00ed severoatlantick\u00e1 oscilace vysv\u011btluje \u010d\u00e1st chladn\u00fdch extr\u00e9m\u016f podobn\u011b jako pozitivn\u00ed blocking index,\u201c<\/em> popisuje Milan Palu\u0161.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Text a foto: (tz-av\u010dr)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  V\u00fdkyvy <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":315962,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[128],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/30\/milan-palus.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/315961"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=315961"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/315961\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":315964,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/315961\/revisions\/315964"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/315962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=315961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=315961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=315961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}