{"id":307153,"date":"2024-05-13T12:21:41","date_gmt":"2024-05-13T11:21:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=307153"},"modified":"2024-05-14T13:17:41","modified_gmt":"2024-05-14T12:17:41","slug":"vladimir-pikora-cesky-statisticky-urad-dnes-zverejnil-dubnovou-inflaci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=307153","title":{"rendered":"VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: \u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad dnes zve\u0159ejnil dubnovou inflaci"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-274601\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"140\" height=\"144\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg 292w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-998x1024.jpg 998w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-768x788.jpg 768w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-348x357.jpg 348w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-471x483.jpg 471w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x.jpg 1072w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 140px) 100vw, 140px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-177056\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"160\" height=\"160\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png 240w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-210x210.png 210w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 160px) 100vw, 160px\" \/>Praha 13. kv\u011btna 2024 (PROTEXT) &#8211; \u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad dnes zve\u0159ejnil dubnovou inflaci.<\/h4>\n<h4>Od roku 2015 vzrostly ceny o 51 %.<\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny meziro\u010dn\u011b vzrostly o 2,9 %, co\u017e je o 0,9procentn\u00edho bodu v\u00edce ne\u017e v b\u0159eznu. To je nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va.<\/p>\n<p>Zat\u00edmco trh o\u010dek\u00e1val meziro\u010dn\u00ed inflaci kolem 2,4 %, v realit\u011b rostly ceny je\u0161t\u011b rychleji. To ukazuje, jak se \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka op\u011bt trefila, kdy\u017e v\u010das varovala p\u0159ed n\u00e1vratem infla\u010dn\u00edch tlak\u016f a p\u0159edem varovala, \u017ee utlum\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Dnes se to jen potvrdilo.<\/p>\n<p>Skok inflace nyn\u00ed otev\u00edr\u00e1 ot\u00e1zku, zda se je\u0161t\u011b v\u016fbec \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. V\u00fdvoj v USA nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 tomu, aby se sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00farok\u016f brzdili. Nemysl\u00edm t\u00edm, \u017ee pokles \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok skon\u010dil, ale mysl\u00edm t\u00edm, \u017ee se m\u016f\u017ee na p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f zastavit. Podobn\u011b jako americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka i \u010desk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka se bude mo\u017en\u00e1 jen rozhl\u00ed\u017eet a \u010dekat na nov\u00e9 statistiky, podle kter\u00fdch se nakonec rozhodne.<\/p>\n<p>Pro trh dluhopis\u016f to p\u0159edstavuje \u00falevu. V\u00fdnosy nebudou klesat tak, jak se p\u016fvodn\u011b \u010dekalo. Pokles bude pomalej\u0161\u00ed. To je dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va pro v\u0161echny, kte\u0159\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed dluhopis s variabiln\u00edm v\u00fdnosem.<\/p>\n<h6>Co konkr\u00e9tn\u011b st\u00e1lo za skokem inflace?<\/h6>\n<p>V mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm i meziro\u010dn\u00edm srovn\u00e1n\u00ed to byly n\u00e1poje (jak alkoholick\u00e9, tak nealkoholick\u00e9), hodn\u011b tak\u00e9 zdra\u017eil tab\u00e1k a pohonn\u00e9 hmoty. Ty zdra\u017eily o 2,7 %.<\/p>\n<p>Tyto polo\u017eky jsou ov\u0161em velmi volatiln\u00ed. To, \u017ee rostly v dubnu neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee budou r\u016fst i v kv\u011btnu. Sp\u00ed\u0161 p\u0159ijde n\u011bjak\u00e1 korekce. Proto bych z toho nevyvozoval \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry. St\u00e1le proto o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee se v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch bude inflace pohybovat v intervalu 1,0 a\u017e 3,5 %. To je \u0161irok\u00fd interval. Bohu\u017eel kdy\u017e dok\u00e1\u017ee inflace za duben posko\u010dit o tu\u010dn\u00fdch 0,9procentn\u00edho bodu, nelze uva\u017eovat o \u00fazk\u00e9m intervalu.<\/p>\n<p>O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m proto, \u017ee nyn\u00ed bude centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka trochu v\u00e1hat s nastaven\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Nic to ale nem\u011bn\u00ed na tom, \u017ee do konce roku \u00faroky je\u0161t\u011b klesnou.<\/p>\n<h6>Zaj\u00edmavosti statistiky?<\/h6>\n<p>Ceny zbo\u017e\u00ed \u00fahrnem vzrostly o 1,4 % a ceny slu\u017eeb o 5,3 %. T\u00edm mnoz\u00ed argumentuj\u00ed. Podle nich proto nelze sni\u017eovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.<\/p>\n<p>J\u00e1 si t\u00edm ale nejsem jist\u00fd. Nemysl\u00edm si, \u017ee to je velk\u00e9 riziko. Naopak vid\u00edm v tom p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost pro \u010cR. Pro\u010d rostou ceny slu\u017eeb? Proto\u017ee rostou mzdy. My ale pot\u0159ebujeme vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed mzdy, abychom m\u011bli v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00faspory a lid\u00e9 mohli investovat. Dnes zhruba t\u0159etina lid\u00ed nen\u00ed schopna nic uspo\u0159it. Do d\u016fchodu p\u016fjdou bez pen\u011bz. To je nutn\u00e9 zm\u011bnit. Nem\u016f\u017eeme zalo\u017eit ekonomiku na n\u00edzk\u00fdch mzd\u00e1ch. To je cesta k chudob\u011b. Dokud mzdy nerostou nikterak dramaticky a dr\u017e\u00ed krok s r\u016fstem produktivity, nen\u00ed nutn\u00e9 je z infla\u010dn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f brzdit.<\/p>\n<p>Dal\u0161\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00ed zaj\u00edmavost\u00ed je, \u017ee hladina bazick\u00e9ho indexu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen k z\u00e1kladn\u00edmu obdob\u00ed (pr\u016fm\u011br roku 2015) byla v dubnu 151,4 %. P\u0159elo\u017eeno do lidsk\u00e9ho jazyka: kdy\u017e porovn\u00e1me dne\u0161n\u00ed ceny s pr\u016fm\u011brem cen v roce 2015, vzrostla cenov\u00e1 hladina o 51,4 %. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, komu od roku 2015 nevzrostla mzda alespo\u0148 o 51,4 %, ten si re\u00e1ln\u011b pohor\u0161il.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vladim\u00edr PIKORA, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Skupina CFG<\/strong>\u00a0funguje na \u010desk\u00e9m finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu p\u0159es 10 let. Poskytuje kvalitn\u00ed servis investor\u016fm, emitent\u016fm, klient\u016fm a partner\u016fm. Konsolidovan\u00fd obrat cel\u00e9 skupiny je 94 mil. K\u010d, m\u00e1 p\u0159es 1 500 investor\u016f a 360 mil. K\u010d aktiv. Provozuje tak\u00e9 port\u00e1l Dluhopisomat.cz nejl\u00e9pe hodnocen\u00fd dluhopisov\u00fd inzertn\u00ed port\u00e1l v \u010cR.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Praha 13. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":307159,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85,121],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/13\/ram-pikora-csu.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307153"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=307153"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":307158,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307153\/revisions\/307158"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/307159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=307153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=307153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=307153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}