{"id":306795,"date":"2024-05-09T15:06:26","date_gmt":"2024-05-09T14:06:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=306795"},"modified":"2024-05-11T22:21:48","modified_gmt":"2024-05-11T21:21:48","slug":"vladimir-pikora-prekvapive-dobry-maloobchod-oddaluje-dalsi-snizeni-urokovych-sazeb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=306795","title":{"rendered":"VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA:  P\u0159ekvapiv\u011b dobr\u00fd maloobchod oddaluje dal\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-274601 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"220\" height=\"226\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg 292w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-998x1024.jpg 998w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-768x788.jpg 768w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-348x357.jpg 348w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-471x483.jpg 471w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x.jpg 1072w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 220px) 100vw, 220px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-177056 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"240\" height=\"240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png 240w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-210x210.png 210w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 240px) 100vw, 240px\" \/>Praha 9. kv\u011btna 2024 (PROTEXT) &#8211; \u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad dnes zve\u0159ejnil data o v\u00fdvoji b\u0159eznov\u00e9ho maloobchodu. Trh o\u010dek\u00e1val r\u016fst o 2,7 %, ve skute\u010dnosti ale tr\u017eby obchod\u016f rostly o 6,1 %. To je \u00fa\u017easn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo. Ukazuje se, \u017ee se ekonomika zotavuje. Maloobchod po velmi \u0161patn\u00e9m roce 2023 roste u\u017e \u010dtvrt\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc v \u0159ad\u011b.<\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6>\u010c\u00edm to bylo d\u00e1no?<\/h6>\n<p>M\u016f\u017ee za to ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed inflace. U t\u00e9 se po\u010d\u00edtalo s poklesem, ale ne s tak velk\u00fdm, jako nakonec p\u0159i\u0161el. Po dlouh\u00e9m obdob\u00ed tak rostou mzdy i v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed. Zkr\u00e1tka mzdy rostou rychleji ne\u017e inflace. Lid\u00e9 tak maj\u00ed najednou pocit, \u017ee se maj\u00ed l\u00e9pe a v\u00edce utr\u00e1c\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>To je efekt, se kter\u00fdm se vloni po\u010d\u00edtalo, jako s d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d ekonomika v roce 2024 ukon\u010d\u00ed recesi. Mezit\u00edm ale p\u0159i\u0161el strach z probl\u00e9m\u016f n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, kter\u00fd se k n\u00e1m p\u0159eleje. Hodn\u011b lid\u00ed proto revidovalo o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed sm\u011brem dol\u016f. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b pokud budou i dal\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce v maloobchod\u011b takto dobr\u00e9, bude tento vliv siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e pr\u016fmysl a m\u016f\u017eeme se v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edch vr\u00e1tit tam, kde jsme p\u016fvodn\u011b byli.<\/p>\n<h6>Kdo za to m\u016f\u017ee?<\/h6>\n<p>M\u016f\u017ee za to \u010cNB. T\u00e9 se poda\u0159ilo zkrotit inflaci rychleji, ne\u017e se myslelo. V\u0161echna ta kritika, kterou jsme vloni sl\u00fdchali na adresu \u010cNB, byla nepravdiv\u00e1. \u010cNB byla \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b objevuj\u00ed se hlasy, \u017ee za to m\u016f\u017ee n\u011bjak\u00fd konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed politik. Ne, politici se jen vezli. Inflaci m\u00e1 na starosti \u010cNB.<\/p>\n<h6>Jak vypad\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed detail?<\/h6>\n<p>Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na statistiky z v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho detailu, vid\u00edme, \u017ee m\u016f\u017eeme rozd\u011blit prodejny na specializovan\u00e9 a nespecializovan\u00e9. Nejv\u00edce ze specializovan\u00fdch rostly tr\u017eby v prodejn\u00e1ch s kosmetick\u00fdmi a toaletn\u00edmi v\u00fdrobky. Ty rostly meziro\u010dn\u011b o 27,4 %. To je neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b hodn\u011b. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee lid\u00e9 odkl\u00e1dali n\u00e1kupy v\u011bc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nejsou nutn\u00e9 hodn\u011b dlouho. Mezit\u00edm v\u0161echny parf\u00e9my a lep\u0161\u00ed kosmetika do\u0161ly. V nespecializovan\u00fdch prodejn\u00e1ch s p\u0159evahou nepotravin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed se tr\u017eby zv\u00fd\u0161ily o 17,1 %. I tady se ukazuje, \u017ee lid\u00e9 kupuj\u00ed to, kde se v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce omezili.<\/p>\n<p>Dal\u0161\u00ed polo\u017ekou, kterou \u0161lo odlo\u017eit, byla auta. Tr\u017eby za n\u011b v b\u0159eznu vzrostly o 5,3 %. To je tak\u00e9 velmi hezk\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo.<\/p>\n<h6>Co to znamen\u00e1 pro centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku?<\/h6>\n<p>Data jsou tak dobr\u00e1, \u017ee mohou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku zasko\u010dit. Kdy\u017e se ekonomice da\u0159\u00ed, nebudou cht\u00edt centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i v\u00fdrazn\u011b sni\u017eovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Zase se bude mluvit o tom, \u017ee je zde v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed riziko z op\u011btovn\u00e9ho r\u016fstu cen. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby budou proto klesat pomaleji. Nelze dokonce vylou\u010dit, \u017ee po n\u011bjak\u00fd \u010das nepoklesnou v\u016fbec.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f tak budou dr\u017eet st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdnosy, nebo jen velmi m\u00edrn\u011b klesnou.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vladim\u00edr PIKORA, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Skupina CFG<\/strong>\u00a0funguje na \u010desk\u00e9m finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu p\u0159es 10 let. Poskytuje kvalitn\u00ed servis investor\u016fm, emitent\u016fm, klient\u016fm a partner\u016fm. Konsolidovan\u00fd obrat cel\u00e9 skupiny je 94 mil. K\u010d, m\u00e1 p\u0159es 1 500 investor\u016f a 360 mil. K\u010d aktiv. Provozuje tak\u00e9 port\u00e1l Dluhopisomat.cz nejl\u00e9pe hodnocen\u00fd dluhopisov\u00fd inzertn\u00ed port\u00e1l v \u010cR.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Praha 9. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":306799,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,85,121],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/09\/ram-pikora-090524.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306795"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=306795"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306795\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":306798,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306795\/revisions\/306798"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/306799"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=306795"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=306795"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=306795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}