{"id":306170,"date":"2024-05-07T11:52:37","date_gmt":"2024-05-07T10:52:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=306170"},"modified":"2024-05-08T18:15:28","modified_gmt":"2024-05-08T17:15:28","slug":"vladimir-pikora-urokove-sazby-klesaji-jen-o-pul-procentniho-bodu-centralni-banka-je-obezretna-urcite-pred-nami-stoji-rizika","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=306170","title":{"rendered":"VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: \u00darokov\u00e9 sazby klesaj\u00ed jen o p\u016fl procentn\u00edho bodu. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka je obez\u0159etn\u00e1. Ur\u010dit\u011b p\u0159ed n\u00e1mi stoj\u00ed rizika"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-274601\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"140\" height=\"144\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg 292w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-998x1024.jpg 998w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-768x788.jpg 768w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-348x357.jpg 348w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-471x483.jpg 471w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x.jpg 1072w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 140px) 100vw, 140px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-177056\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"160\" height=\"160\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png 240w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-210x210.png 210w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 160px) 100vw, 160px\" \/>Bankovn\u00ed rada \u010cNB rozhodla sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby o p\u016fl procentn\u00edho bodu. Dvout\u00fddenn\u00ed repo sazba tak poklesla z 5,75 na 5,25 %. To naprosto odpov\u00edd\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed trhu.<\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Na minul\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bla toti\u017e centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka prostor pro velmi v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, proto\u017ee inflace poklesla pod progn\u00f3zu centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky a\u017e na c\u00edl centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. Pokud na toto nereagovala bankovn\u00ed rada, bylo jasn\u00e9, \u017ee se p\u0159iklonila k tradi\u010dn\u00ed politice mal\u00fdch krok\u016f, kter\u00fdmi se toho d\u00e1 obvykle m\u00e9n\u011b zkazit ne\u017e velk\u00fdmi kroky. Nikdo proto dne\u0161n\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed nep\u0159ekvapilo a nen\u00ed nutn\u00e9, aby trh reagoval ve form\u011b sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f. To u\u017e bylo d\u00e1vno na trhu odra\u017eeno.<\/p>\n<h6>Ot\u00e1zkou je, co bude d\u00e1l<\/h6>\n<p>Na prvn\u00ed pohled se otev\u00edr\u00e1 riziko, \u017ee z inflace p\u0159ejdeme do deflace. Jen\u017ee b\u011bhem posledn\u00edch \u0161esti t\u00fddn\u016f na p\u0159ibyla mnoh\u00e1 ale. Jako velk\u00fd probl\u00e9m vn\u00edm\u00e1m v\u00fdvoj inflace v USA. Tam se nezd\u00e1, \u017ee je inflace na poklesu. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka proto u\u017e dlouhou dobu dr\u017e\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby beze zm\u011bny a z\u0159ejm\u011b to bude i trvat.<\/p>\n<p>Vid\u00edme, jak trh postupn\u011b posouv\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb ze sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed v l\u00e9t\u011b na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed koncem roku a dnes se u\u017e hodn\u011b mluv\u00ed i o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb a\u017e v prvn\u00edm kvart\u00e1le roku 2025. To bere v\u00edtr z plachet v\u0161em, kte\u0159\u00ed s\u00e1zeli na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed uvoln\u011bn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky.<\/p>\n<p>Vid\u00edme, \u017ee ani ECB se nikam ne\u017eene. Vy\u010dk\u00e1v\u00e1. Proto obez\u0159etn\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 doporu\u010duj\u00ed se sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm sazeb m\u00e1me rad\u011bji vy\u010dk\u00e1vat a rozhl\u00ed\u017eet se, co se v ekonomice d\u011bje. Ukazuj\u00ed na zdra\u017een\u00ed slu\u017eeb a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed oslaben\u00ed koruny. Avizovan\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed ale nep\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed. Koruna k euru od poloviny dubna naopak posiluje. Kurz se postupn\u011b vrac\u00ed tam, kde byl v \u00fanoru. Tak\u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 trag\u00e9die nenastala. Tomuto argumentu rozum\u00edm. Jen\u017ee dokud budeme nad \u00farovn\u00ed sazeb ECB, moc se oslaben\u00ed koruny neboj\u00edm.<\/p>\n<p>Pro centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9, \u017ee inflace je v c\u00edli \u010cNB. Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda se tam udr\u017e\u00ed. Pokud v\u00fdrazn\u011b nesn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sazby, koruna nemus\u00ed oslabovat a p\u0159iv\u00e1\u017eet infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky. Vliv r\u016fstu cen slu\u017eeb v\u00edtejme a nebojujme s n\u00edm. To zvy\u0161uje na\u0161e mzdy, aby mohly konvergovat k z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. Ropa se i p\u0159es neklid na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m V\u00fdchod\u011b pohybuje klidn\u011b. Infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky jsou proto zat\u00edm pod kontrolou.<\/p>\n<p>Za riziko vn\u00edm\u00e1m glob\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj. C\u00edt\u00edme, \u017ee jsme st\u00e1le v\u00edce propojeni. R\u016fst cen v USA by se mohl p\u0159en\u00e9st i d\u00e1le po planet\u011b. V Evrop\u011b je ale zat\u00edm situace klidn\u00e1. V euroz\u00f3n\u011b rostou spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny meziro\u010dn\u011b jen o 2,4 %. Zat\u00edm se nen\u00ed \u010deho b\u00e1t, tak\u017ee j\u00e1 bych ve sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb o p\u016fl procentn\u00edho bodu pokra\u010doval je\u0161t\u011b jednou. Pak u\u017e to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dost rizikov\u00e9. To bude na novou progn\u00f3zu a t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>To, \u017ee se \u010cNB br\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b brzd\u00ed ekonomiku. Ta letos poroste jen v \u0159\u00e1du desetinek procenta. Bude to dal\u0161\u00ed promarn\u011bn\u00fd rok od roku 2019. S vysok\u00fdmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami se ekonomika nerozh\u00fdbe. V\u016fbec bych se nedivil, kdybychom se nevr\u00e1tili na p\u0159edcovidovou \u00farove\u0148. To je \u0161\u00edlen\u00e9. V\u0161ichni se u\u017e zotavili jen my ne.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vladim\u00edr PIKORA, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Skupina CFG<\/strong>\u00a0funguje na \u010desk\u00e9m finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu p\u0159es 10 let. Poskytuje kvalitn\u00ed servis investor\u016fm, emitent\u016fm, klient\u016fm a partner\u016fm. Konsolidovan\u00fd obrat cel\u00e9 skupiny je 94 mil. K\u010d, m\u00e1 p\u0159es 1 500 investor\u016f a 360 mil. K\u010d aktiv. Provozuje tak\u00e9 port\u00e1l Dluhopisomat.cz nejl\u00e9pe hodnocen\u00fd dluhopisov\u00fd inzertn\u00ed port\u00e1l v \u010cR.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bankovn\u00ed rada <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":306284,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85,121],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/03\/ram-pikora-sazby.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306170"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=306170"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306170\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":306283,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306170\/revisions\/306283"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/306284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=306170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=306170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=306170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}