{"id":300451,"date":"2024-03-17T12:06:58","date_gmt":"2024-03-17T11:06:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=300451"},"modified":"2024-03-19T13:52:15","modified_gmt":"2024-03-19T12:52:15","slug":"vladimir-pikora-inflace-rychle-brzdi-mnozi-se-zacinaji-bat-deflace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=300451","title":{"rendered":"VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Inflace rychle brzd\u00ed. Mnoz\u00ed se za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed b\u00e1t deflace"},"content":{"rendered":"<h6><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-274601\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"180\" height=\"185\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg 292w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-998x1024.jpg 998w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-768x788.jpg 768w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-348x357.jpg 348w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-471x483.jpg 471w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x.jpg 1072w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 180px) 100vw, 180px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-177056\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"200\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png 240w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-210x210.png 210w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/>Praha (PROTEXT) &#8211; \u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad zve\u0159ejnil data o \u00fanorov\u00e9 inflaci. Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b vzrostly o 0,3 %.<\/h6>\n<h6>Tento v\u00fdvoj byl ovlivn\u011bn zejm\u00e9na vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi cenami v odd\u00edle doprava a v odd\u00edle rekreace a kultura. Meziro\u010dn\u011b vzrostly spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny v \u00fanoru o 2,0 %, co\u017e bylo o 0,3 procentn\u00edho bodu m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v lednu.<\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Za mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstem cen st\u00e1ly zejm\u00e9na ceny pohonn\u00fdch hmot, kter\u00e9 si p\u0159ipsaly 4,3 %. Nafta se v \u00fanoru na \u010derpac\u00edch stanic\u00edch v pr\u016fm\u011bru prod\u00e1vala za zhruba 38,10 K\u010d\/l a benz\u00edn Natural 95 za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 37,80 K\u010d\/l.<\/p>\n<p>Za meziro\u010dn\u00edm zlevn\u011bn\u00ed st\u00e1ly hlavn\u011b potraviny. Nap\u0159. ceny zeleniny p\u0159e\u0161ly z p\u016fvodn\u00edho r\u016fstu o 13,3 % v pokles o 0,1 %. Naopak nahoru tla\u010dily cenovou hladinu n\u00e1jmy. Ty zdra\u017eily o 6,8 %. Elekt\u0159ina je dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed o 13,1 %.<\/p>\n<h6>Inflace \u010cR a euroz\u00f3ny jako nebe a dudy<\/h6>\n<p>Abychom mohli inflaci mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b porovnat, pot\u0159ebujeme ud\u011blat mal\u00e9 \u00fapravy. Podle p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f vzrostl v \u00fanoru harmonizovan\u00fd index spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen (HICP) v \u010cR meziro\u010dn\u011b o 2,2 %. Podle bleskov\u00fdch odhad\u016f Eurostatu byla meziro\u010dn\u00ed zm\u011bna HICP v \u00fanoru 2024 za Euroz\u00f3nu 2,6 %.<\/p>\n<p>To je velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00e9. Rozd\u00edl mezi \u010deskou a evropskou inflac\u00ed se rozev\u00edr\u00e1. \u010ce\u0161i maj\u00ed s korunou ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed inflaci ne\u017e ti, co plat\u00ed eurem. P\u0159itom minim\u00e1ln\u011b rok jsme sl\u00fdchali vylhan\u00fd argument, \u017ee kdybychom m\u011bli euro, m\u011bli bychom ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed inflaci. To byla mantra mnoha politik\u016f. Nyn\u00ed se jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee to byl nesmysl. Nikde v\u0161ak nesly\u0161\u00edm korekci a omluvu. Bohu\u017eel mnoho lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u011bci nerozum\u00ed, statistiku nesleduj\u00ed. Naopak v\u011b\u0159\u00ed tomu, co jim bylo \u0159e\u010deno, a fale\u0161n\u011b proto s\u00e1z\u00ed na euro jako na sp\u00e1su.<\/p>\n<h6>Co ud\u011bl\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka?<\/h6>\n<p>Z pohledu centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee to otev\u00edr\u00e1 nov\u00fd prostor pro sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. A\u010dkoli centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka vloni \u0159\u00edkala, \u017ee bude sni\u017eovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby jen pomalu, tak podle m\u011b je sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj tak p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd, \u017ee bude muset sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby radik\u00e1ln\u011b. U\u017e na posledn\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00ed hlasoval jeden \u010dlen bankovn\u00ed rady pro sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed repo sazby o 0,75 procentn\u00edho bodu. Nyn\u00ed se podle m\u011b posouv\u00e1me k tomu, aby se centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka rozhodovala o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb o jeden a\u017e 1,25 procentn\u00edho bodu.<\/p>\n<h6>Riziko deflace<\/h6>\n<p>Pokud nebude repo sazba rychle klesat, za\u010dnou se objevovat obavy z toho, \u017ee p\u0159ijde deflace. Ta p\u0159itom teoreticky m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ij\u00edt, pokud repo sazba nebude klesat s ka\u017ed\u00fdm zased\u00e1n\u00edm bankovn\u00ed rady alespo\u0148 o jeden procentn\u00ed bod. Ekonomika je slab\u00e1 a pot\u0159ebuje podpo\u0159it. Vize, \u017ee v roce 2024 ekonomika v\u00fdrazn\u011b o\u017eije, se u\u017e rozplynula a nejsp\u00ed\u0161 budeme r\u00e1di, pokud porosteme alespo\u0148 o p\u00e1r desetin. Deflace se p\u0159itom l\u00e9\u010d\u00ed h\u016f\u0159 ne\u017e inflace.<\/p>\n<h6>Co na to trh?<\/h6>\n<p>Z pohledu koruny to p\u0159inese tlak na oslaben\u00ed. Z pohledu dluhopis\u016f to p\u0159inese tlak na pokles v\u00fdnos\u016f. Z pohledu akci\u00ed to nep\u0159inese nic. Burzu se u\u017e politik\u016fm poda\u0159ilo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zni\u010dit. U\u017e tam je jen hrstka titul\u016f. Socialismu jsme op\u011bt o krok bl\u00ed\u017e.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vladim\u00edr PIKORA, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Skupina CFG<\/strong>\u00a0funguje na \u010desk\u00e9m finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu p\u0159es 10 let. Poskytuje kvalitn\u00ed servis investor\u016fm, emitent\u016fm, klient\u016fm a partner\u016fm. Konsolidovan\u00fd obrat cel\u00e9 skupiny je 94 mil. K\u010d, m\u00e1 p\u0159es 1 500 investor\u016f a 360 mil. K\u010d aktiv. Provozuje tak\u00e9 port\u00e1l Dluhopisomat.cz nejl\u00e9pe hodnocen\u00fd dluhopisov\u00fd inzertn\u00ed port\u00e1l v \u010cR.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Praha (PROTEXT) <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":300456,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85,118],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/12\/ram-pikora-inflace.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300451"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=300451"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300451\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":300455,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300451\/revisions\/300455"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/300456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=300451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=300451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=300451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}