{"id":296487,"date":"2024-02-01T18:04:46","date_gmt":"2024-02-01T17:04:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=296487"},"modified":"2024-02-02T23:01:14","modified_gmt":"2024-02-02T22:01:14","slug":"vladimir-pikora-statistici-potvrdili-recesi-nicmene-rok-2024-bude-lepsi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=296487","title":{"rendered":"VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Statistici potvrdili recesi, nicm\u00e9n\u011b rok 2024 bude lep\u0161\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<h6><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-274601\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"200\" height=\"205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg 292w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-998x1024.jpg 998w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-768x788.jpg 768w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-348x357.jpg 348w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-471x483.jpg 471w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x.jpg 1072w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-177056\" src=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"220\" height=\"220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png 240w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo-210x210.png 210w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 220px) 100vw, 220px\" \/>Praha (PROTEXT) &#8211; Rok 2023 byl \u0161patn\u00fd. Statistici potvrdili recesi. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b rok 2024 bude lep\u0161\u00ed. \u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad zve\u0159ejnil data o tom, jak se v roce 2023 da\u0159ilo ekonomice. Podle statistik\u016f poklesla ekonomika v roce 2023 o 0,4 %. To bylo o trochu lep\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se \u010dekalo. V\u011bt\u0161ina ekonom\u016f toti\u017e \u010dekala pokles o 0,5 %. Na v\u00fdsledku ale nic nem\u011bn\u00ed fakt, \u017ee je ekonomika v recesi, co\u017e je \u0161patn\u00e9.<\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na samotn\u00fd \u010dtvrt\u00fd kvart\u00e1l ekonomika klesala meziro\u010dn\u011b o 0,2 %. To ukazuje, \u017ee recese sl\u00e1bne. Z mezi\u010dtvrtletn\u00edho pohledu ekonomika u\u017e ale roste o 0,2 %. Mezi\u010dtvrtletn\u00ed data jsou p\u0159itom pro progn\u00f3zu d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e meziro\u010dn\u00ed, proto\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed data o aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch. Ty p\u0159itom ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee se situace podstatn\u011b zlep\u0161ila.<\/p>\n<p>O tom ostatn\u011b nasv\u011bd\u010duj\u00ed i n\u011bkter\u00e9 indik\u00e1tory, jako jsou t\u0159eba maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby, kter\u00e9 po mnoha m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch poklesu, za\u010daly ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m kvart\u00e1le m\u00edrn\u011b r\u016fst. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, pokud by tento trend p\u0159etrval, je zde velk\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee v prvn\u00edm kvart\u00e1le roku 2024 u\u017e ekonomika m\u00edrn\u011b poroste i v meziro\u010dn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed a budeme moci prohl\u00e1sit, \u017ee recese je za n\u00e1mi.<\/p>\n<p>N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed lid\u00e9 z toho vyvozuj\u00ed velk\u00e9 v\u011bci, jako \u017ee ekonomika o\u017eije a rychle poroste. A\u010dkoli jsem u\u017e na podzim tvrdil, \u017ee je odhad Ministerstva financ\u00ed o r\u016fstu o 1,9 % v roce 2024 moc optimistick\u00fd, necht\u011bli to sly\u0161et. Optimismus se odrazil i v n\u00e1vrhu st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu na rok 2024, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 kv\u016fli tomu podle m\u011b nadhodnocen\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy.<\/p>\n<p>Nyn\u00ed v lednu v\u0161ak Ministerstvo financ\u00ed koriguje a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee ekonomika poroste jen o 1,2 %. To je p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed realit\u011b, kter\u00e9 chv\u00e1l\u00edm. J\u00e1 ov\u0161em \u010dek\u00e1m, \u017ee bude v\u00fdsledek je\u0161t\u011b o p\u00e1r desetinek n\u00ed\u017e. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, rok 2024 bude lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e rok 2023, ale m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e tvrd\u00ed politici. Zlep\u0161en\u00ed bude tak m\u00edrn\u00e9, \u017ee ho pouh\u00fdm okem nepozn\u00e1me. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b v tr\u017eb\u00e1ch u\u017e to bude vid\u011bt. Z pohledu n\u00e1rodohospod\u00e1\u0159e je ov\u0161em t\u0159eba zd\u016fraznit, \u017ee u\u017e nyn\u00ed by m\u011blo ministerstvo sn\u00ed\u017eit o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy rozpo\u010dtu a \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee deficit rozpo\u010dtu bude nakonec vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se dnes tvrd\u00ed. To by se m\u011blo projevit v dal\u0161\u00edm tlaku na \u00faspory. O tom zat\u00edm nesly\u0161\u00edme.<\/p>\n<h6>Kde se da\u0159\u00ed a kde ne?<\/h6>\n<p>Z pohledu jednotliv\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed ekonomiky se ukazuje, \u017ee ekonomice pom\u00e1h\u00e1 zpracovatelsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. To je na\u0161e kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 odv\u011btv\u00ed. Bohu\u017eel s t\u00edm, jak asijsk\u00e9 automobilky tla\u010d\u00ed na evropsk\u00e9, se boj\u00edm, \u017ee tady nen\u00ed v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch letech prostor k n\u011bjak\u00e9mu v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu r\u016fstu. Nutn\u011b pot\u0159ebujeme ekonomiku transformovat a nes\u00e1zet hlavn\u011b na auta.<\/p>\n<p>Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pokles naopak v roce 2023 zaznamenal obchod, doprava a pohostinstv\u00ed. Tady v\u0161ude je c\u00edtit propad re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd. Lid\u00e9 nem\u011bli z \u010deho utr\u00e1cet. Mnoho venkovsk\u00fdch hospod skon\u010dilo.<\/p>\n<p>Nicm\u00e9n\u011b inflace bude v roce 2024 dramaticky ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, a proto p\u0159i zachov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho r\u016fstu mezd, bude moci spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed vzr\u016fst. To by se m\u011blo projevit v maloobchodu. Zejm\u00e9na e-shopy se vzpamatuj\u00ed a za\u010dnou zase vyd\u011bl\u00e1vat.<\/p>\n<h6>Ekonomick\u00fd paradox: jak m\u016f\u017ee v recesi r\u016fst zam\u011bstnanost?<\/h6>\n<p>Dal\u0161\u00edm \u010d\u00edslem, kter\u00e9 statistici zve\u0159ejnili je zam\u011bstnanost. Ta v minul\u00e9m roce vzrostla o 0,7 %. To je naprosto paradoxn\u00ed. V dob\u011b, kdy je ekonomika v recesi, by podle z\u00e1kladn\u00edch makroekonomick\u00fdch pou\u010dek m\u011bla zam\u011bstnanost klesat, proto\u017ee je nutn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017eit objem v\u00fdroby a k tomu sta\u010d\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b zam\u011bstnanc\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Tento paradox si vysv\u011btluji t\u00edm, \u017ee v \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice je dlouhodob\u00fd nedostatek pracovn\u00edch sil, a proto i p\u0159i m\u00edrn\u00e9m propadu v\u00fdroby podniky nepropou\u0161t\u00ed a dr\u017e\u00ed si zam\u011bstnance, proto\u017ee je levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je dnes platit, ne\u017e aby je za rok zase naj\u00edmali. S p\u0159\u00edchodem migrant\u016f na \u010desk\u00fd trh se nav\u00edc situace na trhu zlep\u0161ila. Trh je snadno absorboval, tak\u017ee najednou v ekonomice pracovalo v\u00edce lid\u00ed. Ukazuje se tak, \u017ee ekonomika pot\u0159ebuje dal\u0161\u00ed pracovn\u00ed s\u00edlu. Bez n\u00ed nem\u00e1 \u0161anci dlouhodob\u011b r\u016fst. Bu\u010f na\u0161i v\u00fdrobu v\u00edce zautomatizujeme, vyu\u017eijeme v\u00edce robot\u016f, nebo pot\u0159ebuje dal\u0161\u00ed lidi.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vladim\u00edr PIKORA, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Skupina CFG<\/strong>\u00a0funguje na \u010desk\u00e9m finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu p\u0159es 10 let. Poskytuje kvalitn\u00ed servis investor\u016fm, emitent\u016fm, klient\u016fm a partner\u016fm. Konsolidovan\u00fd obrat cel\u00e9 skupiny je 94 mil. K\u010d, m\u00e1 p\u0159es 1 500 investor\u016f a 360 mil. K\u010d aktiv. Provozuje tak\u00e9 port\u00e1l Dluhopisomat.cz nejl\u00e9pe hodnocen\u00fd dluhopisov\u00fd inzertn\u00ed port\u00e1l v \u010cR.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Praha (PROTEXT) <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":296648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85,121],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/01\/ram-pikora-statistici.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296487"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=296487"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":296647,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296487\/revisions\/296647"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/296648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=296487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=296487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=296487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}