{"id":290699,"date":"2023-11-07T13:03:05","date_gmt":"2023-11-07T12:03:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=290699"},"modified":"2023-11-07T13:03:05","modified_gmt":"2023-11-07T12:03:05","slug":"vladimir-pikora-alarmujici-propad-prumyslu-versus-vzestup-zahranicniho-obchodu-co-to-znamena-pro-ceskou-ekonomiku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=290699","title":{"rendered":"VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed propad pr\u016fmyslu versus vzestup zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu: Co to znamen\u00e1 pro \u010deskou ekonomiku?"},"content":{"rendered":"![\"\"](\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/16\/protext-logo.png\")
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/07\/vladimir-pikora-x-292x300.jpg\")
Praha (PROTEXT) – V pond\u011bl\u00ed 6. listopadu byla \u010cesk\u00fdm statistick\u00fdm \u00fa\u0159adem zve\u0159ejn\u011bna nov\u00e1 data o \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice, kter\u00e1 p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy. Nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm je pokles pr\u016fmyslu o 5 %, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 obavy. Dal\u0161\u00edm znepokojiv\u00fdm faktorem je pokles vyd\u00e1n\u00ed stavebn\u00edch povolen\u00ed o 10,2 % oproti minul\u00e9mu roku. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b, oblast zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed nad\u011bji s p\u0159ebytkem t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 13 miliard K\u010d.<\/h6>\n
Osobn\u011b m\u011b znepokojuje pokles pr\u016fmyslu, kter\u00fd nen\u00ed izolovan\u00fdm jevem, ale trendem tohoto roku, s celkov\u00fdm poklesem o 0,3 %. To poukazuje na slabost na\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky. Z\u00e1sadn\u00edm ukazatelem je tak\u00e9 meziro\u010dn\u00ed pokles nov\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek o 5,2 %. Statistiky nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee\u00a0hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem je dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vka, s poklesem zahrani\u010dn\u00edch objedn\u00e1vek o 1,5 % a dom\u00e1c\u00edch o 12,2 %. To ukazuje na hor\u0161\u00ed ekonomickou situaci v na\u0161\u00ed zemi ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s okoln\u00edmi st\u00e1ty. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee jakmile se zahrani\u010dn\u00ed ekonomiky zotav\u00ed, pom\u016f\u017ee to i na\u0161emu pr\u016fmyslu.<\/p>\n
Optimistick\u00fd pohled by nazna\u010doval, \u017ee bychom mohli dos\u00e1hnout nulov\u00e9ho r\u016fstu pr\u016fmyslu na konci roku, ale realisticky o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me m\u00edrn\u00fd celoro\u010dn\u00ed pokles.<\/p>\n
Stavebnictv\u00ed: Nad\u011bje na horizontu?<\/h6>\n
V oblasti stavebnictv\u00ed je vid\u011bt pozitivn\u00ed sign\u00e1l, s meziro\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstem stavebn\u00ed produkce o 1,7 %. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, v\u00fdhled na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok nen\u00ed tak optimistick\u00fd vzhledem k\u00a0poklesu nov\u00fdch stavebn\u00edch povolen\u00ed o 10,2 %. Trh nemovitost\u00ed se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt stabilizovan\u00fd, s meziro\u010dn\u00edm n\u00e1r\u016fstem zah\u00e1jen\u00fdch staveb o 24,6 %, ale poklesem dokon\u010den\u00fdch byt\u016f o 25,9 %. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee developer\u016fm se vypl\u00e1c\u00ed \u010dekat na lep\u0161\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed podm\u00ednky. Podle t\u011bchto dat to vypad\u00e1, \u017ee je trh nemovitost\u00ed na dn\u011b.<\/p>\n
Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed obchod jako zdroj optimismu<\/h6>\n
V zahrani\u010dn\u00edm obchod\u011b jsme dos\u00e1hli p\u0159ebytku obchodn\u00ed bilance ve v\u00fd\u0161i 12,8 miliard K\u010d, co\u017e je velmi v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zlep\u0161en\u00ed oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu roku. Meziro\u010dn\u00ed pokles v\u00fdvozu o 10,2 % a dovozu o 16,0 % je zp\u016fsoben sp\u00ed\u0161e poklesem cen ropy a men\u0161\u00edm objemem dovezen\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed ne\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee dovoz se v budoucnu zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed. Efekt ni\u017e\u0161\u00edho mno\u017estv\u00ed dovezen\u00e9 ropy a plynu zase vysko\u010d\u00ed, abychom se dostali na pr\u016fm\u011br.<\/p>\n
Reakce trh\u016f a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky<\/h6>\n
Trhy reagovaly na tato makroekonomick\u00e1 data m\u00edrn\u00fdm oslaben\u00edm koruny, kter\u00e9 bylo brzy n\u00e1sledov\u00e1no n\u00e1vratem k p\u016fvodn\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m, co\u017e nazna\u010duje uklidn\u011bn\u00ed d\u00edky pozitivn\u00edm zpr\u00e1v\u00e1m z oblasti zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu. Varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed m\u011bnovou kriz\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ned\u00e1vno zve\u0159ejnila Nomura, se ve st\u00ednu dne\u0161n\u00edch dat zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt dost nep\u0159esn\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Z hlediska centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky by mohly b\u00fdt ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti v pr\u016fmyslu argumentem pro sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Ekonomika se evidentn\u011b dus\u00ed. Sazby by mohly b\u00fdt sn\u00ed\u017eeny o 25 bod\u016f, co\u017e je v souladu s postupn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstupem \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky. P\u0159esto\u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed navrhuj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed, realistick\u00fd pohled nazna\u010duje opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Vladim\u00edr PIKORA, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
\n- Skupina CFG<\/strong> funguje na \u010desk\u00e9m finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu p\u0159es 10 let. Poskytuje kvalitn\u00ed servis investor\u016fm, emitent\u016fm, klient\u016fm a partner\u016fm. Konsolidovan\u00fd obrat cel\u00e9 skupiny je 94 mil. K\u010d, m\u00e1 p\u0159es 1 500 investor\u016f a 360 mil. K\u010d aktiv. Provozuje tak\u00e9 port\u00e1l Dluhopisomat.cz nejl\u00e9pe hodnocen\u00fd dluhopisov\u00fd inzertn\u00ed port\u00e1l v \u010cR.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Praha (PROTEXT) <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":290704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/07\/pikora-071123.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/290699"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=290699"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/290699\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":290703,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/290699\/revisions\/290703"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/290704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=290699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=290699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=290699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}