{"id":280699,"date":"2023-06-09T14:36:08","date_gmt":"2023-06-09T13:36:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=280699"},"modified":"2023-06-11T13:24:22","modified_gmt":"2023-06-11T12:24:22","slug":"vladimir-pikora-prumysl-bude-letos-slaby-stavebnictvi-letos-poklesne-ekonomika-jako-celek-proto-letos-neporoste-rust-prijde-az-pristi-rok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=280699","title":{"rendered":"VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: Pr\u016fmysl bude letos slab\u00fd. Stavebnictv\u00ed letos poklesne. Ekonomika jako celek proto letos neporoste. R\u016fst p\u0159ijde a\u017e p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok."},"content":{"rendered":"
\u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad zve\u0159ejnil statistiky z pr\u016fmyslu a stavebnictv\u00ed a tak\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed obchod.<\/h6>\n

\"\"Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 produkce v dubnu meziro\u010dn\u011b re\u00e1ln\u011b vzrostla o 1,2 %.<\/p>\n

To je proti b\u0159eznu p\u011bkn\u00e9 zpomalen\u00ed. Uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee naprost\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed zaznamenala pokles produkce. Nad vodou dr\u017eely pr\u016fmysl automobilky. V\u00fdroba motorov\u00fdch vozidel, p\u0159\u00edv\u011bs\u016f a n\u00e1v\u011bs\u016f v meziro\u010dn\u00edm porovn\u00e1n\u00ed vzrostla o 30 %. Za t\u00edmto v\u00fdsledkem ov\u0161em nest\u00e1l boom automobilek, n\u00fdbr\u017e n\u00edzk\u00e1 srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladna z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, kdy chyb\u011bly dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 komponenty.<\/p>\n

Pro anal\u00fdzu je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 pod\u00edvat se na hodnotu nov\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek. Ta vzrostla o 2,7 %. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je p\u0159itom rozd\u011blen\u00ed na nov\u00e9 zak\u00e1zky ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed a z domova. Tuzemsk\u00e9 nov\u00e9 zak\u00e1zky vzrostly o 11,3 %, zat\u00edmco zahrani\u010dn\u00ed klesly o 1,6 %. Bohu\u017eel i tato \u010d\u00edsla jsou ovlivn\u011bna n\u00edzkou srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladnou. \u010c\u00edsla tak vypadaj\u00ed optimisti\u010dt\u011bji.<\/p>\n

Rad\u011bji se proto d\u00edv\u00e1m na statistiky z v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho nadhledu. Za prvn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce rostl pr\u016fmysl o 1,2 %. To m\u00e1 vypov\u00eddac\u00ed hodnotu. Toto \u010d\u00edslo je p\u0159itom slabou\u010dk\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Duben ve stavebnictv\u00ed<\/h6>\n

Stavebn\u00ed produkce v dubnu meziro\u010dn\u011b klesla o 6,4 %. Stavebn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady vydaly meziro\u010dn\u011b o 10,9 % m\u00e9n\u011b stavebn\u00edch povolen\u00ed. Meziro\u010dn\u011b bylo p\u0159itom zah\u00e1jeno o 24,6 % byt\u016f m\u00e9n\u011b. Dokon\u010deno bylo o naopak 40,6 % byt\u016f v\u00edce.<\/p>\n

Stavebnictv\u00ed pad\u00e1 a padat d\u00e1l bude. Za cel\u00fd rok o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m propad kolem 3 %. Signalizuje to dramatick\u00fd propad stavebn\u00edch povolen\u00ed a propad zah\u00e1jen\u00fdch byt\u016f. Develope\u0159i nerozj\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed nov\u00e9 projekty. Vy\u010dk\u00e1vaj\u00ed a dod\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed rozestav\u011bn\u00e9 byty.<\/p>\n

Situace se podle m\u011b oto\u010d\u00ed a\u017e v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce. To rozmrzne trh hypot\u00e9k. \u00darokov\u00e9 sazby poklesnou a z\u00e1rove\u0148 s t\u00edm budou u\u017e zm\u011bk\u010dena pravidla pro poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed hypot\u00e9k.<\/p>\n

Ceny nemovitost\u00ed proto mohou letos je\u0161t\u011b klesat, ale v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce se vr\u00e1t\u00ed k r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n

Dubnov\u00e1 bilance zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu skon\u010dila p\u0159ebytkem 8,4 mld. K\u010d, co\u017e byl meziro\u010dn\u011b o 36,6 mld. K\u010d lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledky p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011b ovlivnil zejm\u00e9na meziro\u010dn\u011b men\u0161\u00ed schodek obchodu s ropou a zemn\u00edm plynem o 21,2 mld. K\u010d vlivem poklesu cen na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch i ni\u017e\u0161\u00edho dovezen\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, dov\u00e1\u017e\u00edme m\u00e9n\u011b ropy a plynu a ten je nav\u00edc je\u0161t\u011b levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. \u010cesk\u00e1 z\u00e1sluha na zlep\u0161en\u00ed bilance je tedy jen minim\u00e1ln\u00ed.
\nZ \u010dist\u011b technick\u00e9ho pohledu stoj\u00ed za \u00fasp\u011bchem to, \u017ee v\u00fdvoz rostl o 2,3 % a dovoz klesl o 7,8 %. Takov\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla bych si p\u0159\u00e1l vid\u011bt u p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f a v\u00fddaj\u016f st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu.<\/p>\n

V lednu a\u017e dubnu 2023 dos\u00e1hl p\u0159ebytek obchodn\u00ed bilance 49,8 mld. K\u010d ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s deficitem 40,2 mld. K\u010d ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00edho roku. To je argument, pro\u010d letos nevad\u00ed, \u017ee je koruna siln\u00e1. Koruna d\u00edky t\u00e9to statistice m\u016f\u017ee pos\u00edlit je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce.<\/p>\n

Co bych d\u011blal, kdybych byl centr\u00e1ln\u00edm bank\u00e9\u0159em?<\/h6>\n

Z pohledu centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky nep\u0159inesla data nic p\u0159ekvapuj\u00edc\u00edho a nic nov\u00e9ho. Pr\u016fmysl bude letos slab\u00fd. Stavebnictv\u00ed letos poklesne. Ekonomika jako celek proto letos neporoste. R\u016fst p\u0159ijde a\u017e p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m proto, \u017ee \u010cNB sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a\u017e na p\u0159elomu roku. Velkou nejistotou ov\u0161em z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det a v\u00fdvoj mezd. Tady by mohl nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd v\u00fdvoj je\u0161t\u011b donutit \u010cNB k jednomu zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb b\u011bhem nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/p>\n

FB \u2013\u00a0<\/strong>Vladim\u00edr PIKORA<\/strong><\/a>, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":280702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85,107],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/08\/pikora-prumysl.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280699"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=280699"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280699\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":280701,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280699\/revisions\/280701"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/280702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=280699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=280699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=280699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}