{"id":275850,"date":"2023-03-28T12:15:06","date_gmt":"2023-03-28T11:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=275850"},"modified":"2023-03-30T12:30:06","modified_gmt":"2023-03-30T11:30:06","slug":"vladimir-pikora-brezen-prinesl-ohromnou-otocku-ve-vnimani-budoucnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=275850","title":{"rendered":"VLADIM\u00cdR PIKORA: B\u0159ezen p\u0159inesl ohromnou oto\u010dku ve vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed budoucnosti"},"content":{"rendered":"
P\u0159ed m\u011bs\u00edcem si lid\u00e9 mysleli, jak ve sv\u011bt\u011b porostou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky postupn\u011b potla\u010d\u00ed rekordn\u00ed inflaci a v\u0161em bude dob\u0159e. Jen\u017ee v\u0161e skon\u010dilo jinak.<\/h6>\n

\"\"Zpr\u00e1vy o tom, \u017ee je ekonomika podle nov\u00fdch dat v m\u00edrn\u00e9 recesi (mezikvart\u00e1ln\u011b poklesla o 0,4 %), ale nezam\u011bstnanost p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b stagnuje na 3,9 % a inflace p\u0159itom zpomaluje o 0,8 procentn\u00edho bodu na 16,7 %, jsou ve st\u00ednu posledn\u00edho d\u011bn\u00ed o ni\u010dem.<\/p>\n

P\u00e1d st\u0159edn\u011b velk\u00e9 americk\u00e9 banky Silicon Valley Bank v\u0161e zm\u011bnil. Najednou se mnoz\u00ed vyd\u011bsili, \u017ee mo\u017en\u00e1 nen\u00ed na trz\u00edch v\u0161e v po\u0159\u00e1dku a \u017ee je tu mo\u017en\u00e1 nov\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00ed krize.<\/p>\n

Uk\u00e1zalo se toti\u017e, \u017ee banka, kter\u00e1 se py\u0161nila svou diverzitou, kde se veden\u00ed firmy hl\u00e1silo k mnoha r\u016fzn\u00fdm pohlav\u00edm, nem\u011bla osm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f \u0161\u00e9fa \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizik. Lid\u00e9 se najednou za\u010dali pt\u00e1t, zda banka nev\u011bnuje v\u00edce pozornosti ochladnut\u00ed planety ne\u017e jej\u00edm pen\u011bz\u016fm. N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed strach z p\u00e1du dal\u0161\u00edch bank a v\u0161eobecn\u00e1 panika vedly k tomu, \u017ee i samotn\u00fd prezident USA Joe Biden musel uklid\u0148ovat lidi, \u017ee o nic nep\u0159ijdou atd.
\nJen\u017ee klid netrval dlouho. Brzo na to ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku padla banka se 167letou histori\u00ed. Obra musel p\u0159evz\u00edt je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed obr. \u0160v\u00fdcar\u0161t\u00ed politici byli zd\u011b\u0161eni, \u017ee je nov\u00e1 banka i na bohat\u00e9 \u0160v\u00fdcarsko a\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00e1. Jen st\u00e1tn\u00ed podpora toti\u017e tvo\u0159\u00ed skoro t\u0159etinu \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9ho HDP.<\/p>\n

Za probl\u00e9my bank p\u0159itom stoj\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky<\/h6>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky l\u00e9ta vedly \u0161\u00edlenou politiku, kdy m\u011bly \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby z\u00e1porn\u00e9, \u010di nulov\u00e9, co\u017e je v naprost\u00e9m rozporu se stavebn\u00edmi kameny kapitalismu. Ud\u011blaly z mnoha firem narkomany, kter\u00e9 byly na n\u00edzk\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch \u017eivotn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9. Kdy\u017e pak \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby rychle zvedly, firmy to neust\u00e1ly. Ponau\u010den\u00ed z toho plyne, \u017ee by si centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i nem\u011bli pl\u00e9st \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby s jojo a m\u011bli je standardn\u011b nech\u00e1vat v intervalu 1 a\u017e 4 %, proto\u017ee v\u00edce i m\u00e9n\u011b ni\u010d\u00ed ekonomiku.<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9mem aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed vysok\u00e9 inflace je, \u017ee s n\u00ed bojuje jen centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka skrze \u00fav\u011bry. Pl\u00ed\u017eiv\u00fd socialismus, kter\u00fd se postupn\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed civilizac\u00ed, vede k tomu, \u017ee v\u0161ude maj\u00ed st\u00e1ty permanentn\u00ed deficit st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu. Jen\u017ee co je inflace? Inflace vznik\u00e1 t\u00edm, \u017ee je v ob\u011bhu moc pen\u011bz. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, vl\u00e1dy p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k inflaci. V tuto chv\u00edli by m\u011bl tedy pomoci st\u00e1t a p\u0159ev\u00e9st sv\u00e9 deficity rozpo\u010dtu na p\u0159ebytky. Jen\u017ee to nikdo ned\u011bl\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159. my m\u00e1me letos napl\u00e1novan\u00fd skoro rekordn\u00ed deficit rozpo\u010dtu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 295 miliard korun. P\u0159itom jen platy st\u00e1tn\u00edch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f tvo\u0159\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00fd deficit. Je pot\u0159eba \u0161et\u0159it, jen\u017ee to je nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed a v\u011bt\u0161ina vl\u00e1d je populistick\u00fdch. Jedni upl\u00e1cej\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi platy st\u00e1tn\u00ed zam\u011bstnance, druz\u00ed zase vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi d\u016fchody d\u016fchodce, jin\u00ed ustupuj\u00ed mlad\u00fdm a dotuj\u00ed v\u011bci, u kter\u00fdch lze sm\u011bla pochybovat o jejich p\u0159\u00ednosu pro ochlazen\u00ed planety. Dokud neuvid\u00edme p\u0159ebytky st\u00e1tn\u00edch rozpo\u010dt\u016f, nem\u016f\u017eeme mluvit o tom, \u017ee m\u00e1me ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance pod kontrolou.<\/p>\n

Inflace nebo banky? O co bojujeme?<\/h6>\n

Za tohoto prost\u0159ed\u00ed padlo nyn\u00ed n\u011bkolik bank. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta za\u010daly rychle dol\u00e9vat na trh likviditu, aby banky p\u0159e\u017eily. Byly to nejprve des\u00edtky a potom stovky miliard dolar\u016f. Jen\u017ee co to znamen\u00e1 dol\u00e9vat likviditu? To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee je zase v\u00edce pen\u011bz v ob\u011bhu. A to p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky.
\nV tomto prost\u0159ed\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ila americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka op\u011bt sv\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, aby \u201ejako\u201c bojovala s inflac\u00ed. Musela. M\u011bs\u00edce v\u0161echny p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dovala, jak bude m\u00edt inflaci pod kontrolou, kdy\u017e bude po\u0159\u00e1d zvy\u0161ovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Kdyby te\u010f \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby nezv\u00fd\u0161ila, v\u0161ichni by si \u0159ekli, \u017ee je v bankovn\u00edm sektoru n\u011bco shnil\u00e9ho, a to centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka jist\u011b necht\u011bla.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee co t\u00edm d\u011blala? Jedno rukou do ekonomiky h\u00e1zela pen\u00edze a druhou je sb\u00edrala. Byla to \u00fapln\u00e1 \u0161a\u0161k\u00e1rna. Co to ale m\u011blo za d\u016fsledek? Najednou v\u0161ichni ch\u00e1pou, \u017ee doba zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb nejsp\u00ed\u0161 skon\u010dila.<\/p>\n

Co budou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky zachra\u0148ovat? Inflaci nebo bankovn\u00ed sektor? To jsou dva velk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my a t\u011b\u017eko p\u016fjde zachr\u00e1nit oboje. J\u00e1 s\u00e1z\u00edm na z\u00e1chranu bankovn\u00edho sektoru, co\u017e podle m\u011b znamen\u00e1, \u017ee tu bude inflace d\u00e9le, ne\u017e jsme p\u016fvodn\u011b \u010dekali a \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby za p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f m\u00edrn\u011b klesnou.<\/p>\n

Co z toho plyne pro trhy?<\/h6>\n

V\u00fdnos dluhopisu do splatnosti je d\u00e1n s matematickou p\u0159esnost\u00ed. Ten je p\u0159itom ovlivn\u011bn \u00farokovou sazbou. Pokud \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby klesnou, poroste cena dluhopisu.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u00e9 to je se zlatem? Probl\u00e9mem zlata je, \u017ee na rozd\u00edl od dluhopis\u016f nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed investor\u016fm \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd kup\u00f3n (ch\u00e1pej jako \u00farok). \u010c\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed jsou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, t\u00edm v\u00edce lid\u00e9 prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed zlato, proto\u017ee cht\u011bj\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b dost\u00e1vat n\u011bjak\u00e9 pen\u00edze z dluhopisu. Jestli\u017ee \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba klesne, cena zlata logicky roste. Proto mnoho lid\u00ed prod\u00e1v\u00e1 akcie bank a ut\u00edk\u00e1 do zlata jako bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavu.<\/p>\n

Pokud si se zlatem nev\u00edte rady, napi\u0161te mi (vladimir@pikorainvest.cz<\/strong><\/a>), probereme to.<\/p>\n

\u010casto se pt\u00e1te, zda je lep\u0161\u00ed investovat do zlata nebo do st\u0159\u00edbra. J\u00e1 preferuji zlato, proto\u017ee je osvobozeno od DPH. Investice do st\u0159\u00edbra mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zalo\u017eena na p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee se zhodnot\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b o DPH v\u00edce ne\u017e investice do zlata. P\u0159itom oba kovy jdou obvykle v tandemu, tak\u017ee j\u00e1 preferuji zlato.<\/p>\n

Pt\u00e1te se tak\u00e9 na investici do stavebn\u00edho spo\u0159en\u00ed. To je n\u011bco, co m\u011b tr\u00e1p\u00ed. Stavebn\u00ed spo\u0159en\u00ed bylo p\u016fvodn\u011b chyt\u0159e vymy\u0161leno jako pomoc lidem p\u0159i v\u00fdstavb\u011b a n\u00e1sledn\u011b p\u0159i spo\u0159en\u00ed na d\u016fchod. Jen\u017ee u\u017e asi patn\u00e1ct let politici p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161l\u00ed, jak to ud\u011blat, aby zni\u010dili stavebn\u00ed spo\u0159en\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 si moc nena\u0161tvali voli\u010de, kte\u0159\u00ed zde spo\u0159\u00ed. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tato vl\u00e1da pojede na stejn\u00e9 vln\u011b. Podle m\u011b je tento produkt odsouzen k smrti. Pen\u00edze bych proto odsud vyparkoval a ulo\u017eil je jinde.<\/p>\n

A nakonec jednu perli\u010dku. Pt\u00e1te se na dan\u011bn\u00ed. Dluhopisy jsou stejn\u011b jako jin\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry dan\u011bny 15 procenty. Zlato je na rozd\u00edl od st\u0159\u00edbra pova\u017eov\u00e1no za m\u011bnu. A dan\u00edte dolary, kdy\u017e se posune m\u011bnov\u00fd kurz ve v\u00e1\u0161 prosp\u011bch? Nedan\u00edte. Ani zlato se proto nedan\u00ed. A to se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

FB \u2013\u00a0<\/strong>Vladim\u00edr PIKORA<\/strong><\/a>, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159ed m\u011bs\u00edcem <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":275954,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85,107],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/29\/pikora-290323.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275850"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=275850"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275850\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":275959,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275850\/revisions\/275959"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/275954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=275850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=275850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=275850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}