{"id":250294,"date":"2022-03-25T14:20:01","date_gmt":"2022-03-25T13:20:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=250294"},"modified":"2022-03-25T14:20:01","modified_gmt":"2022-03-25T13:20:01","slug":"analyza-cs-sporitelny-cena-psenice-versus-cena-chleba-michal-skorepa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=250294","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA \u010cS. SPO\u0158ITELNY: Cena p\u0161enice versus cena chleba (Michal Sko\u0159epa)"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Vedle drah\u00fdch cen energi\u00ed se jako dal\u0161\u00ed faktor, kter\u00fd bude tla\u010dit inflaci v\u00a0\u010cesku i jinde nahoru, st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji zmi\u0148uje cena p\u0161enice. Cena t\u00e9to komodity skute\u010dn\u011b v\u00a0posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch z\u0159eteln\u011b rostla, a v posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech d\u00e1l prudce vysko\u010dila (na\u010de\u017e do\u0161lo jen k\u00a0\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 korekci):<\/h6>\n

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Je ov\u0161em ot\u00e1zka, jak velkou \u010d\u00e1st tohoto skoku lze ch\u00e1pat jako odraz ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed nab\u00eddky (za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee popt\u00e1vka se v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b nijak v\u00fdrazn\u011b nezvy\u0161ovala) versus do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry jde sp\u00ed\u0161 o d\u016fsledek um\u011bl\u00e9ho, v\u00a0podstat\u011b spekulativn\u00edho n\u00e1r\u016fstu popt\u00e1vky v\u00a0obav\u011b, \u017ee se nab\u00eddka teprve sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, a tedy \u017ee se cena zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A pokud plat\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 druh\u00e1 uveden\u00e1 mo\u017enost (proto\u017ee sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed nab\u00eddky p\u0161enice v\u00a0d\u016fsledku rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu a s\u00a0t\u00edm souvisej\u00edc\u00edch sankc\u00ed asi teprve nastane), pak je ot\u00e1zka, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry jsou obavy z\u00a0masivn\u00edho poklesu nab\u00eddky a masivn\u00edho r\u016fstu ceny na m\u00edst\u011b.<\/p>\n

Detailn\u00ed pohled na statistiky Organizace pro v\u00fd\u017eivu a zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed (FAO) ukazuje, \u017ee produkce p\u0161enice z Ruska a Ukrajiny v\u00a0posledn\u00edch \u201enorm\u00e1ln\u00edch\u201c letech 2015-2019 p\u0159edstavovala kolem 14 % celkov\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce. To jist\u011b nen\u00ed m\u00e1lo, ale o obilnic\u00edch sv\u011bta se p\u0159ece jen mluvit ned\u00e1 (celosv\u011btov\u00fd pohled je na m\u00edst\u011b, proto\u017ee trh s\u00a0p\u0161enic\u00ed je do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry globalizovan\u00fd).<\/p>\n

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Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u011bc je vztah mezi cenou p\u0161enice a cenou potravin, kter\u00e9 se z\u00a0n\u00ed vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad u chleba tvo\u0159\u00ed samotn\u00e1 p\u0161enice jen kolem 10 %.<\/p>\n

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I kdyby tedy p\u0161enice zdra\u017eila na dvojn\u00e1sobek, do ceny chleba by se to m\u011blo prom\u00edtnout v\u00a0podob\u011b zdra\u017een\u00ed o cca 20 %, tedy nap\u0159\u00edklad z\u00a030 K\u010d na 36 K\u010d. Leda\u017ee na potravin\u00e1\u0159e padne podez\u0159en\u00ed ze \u0161ponov\u00e1n\u00ed mar\u017e\u00ed, jak\u00e9 padlo v\u00a0minul\u00fdch dnech na pumpa\u0159e (a trh s\u00a0pe\u010divem se uk\u00e1\u017ee m\u00e9n\u011b konkuren\u010dn\u00ed ne\u017e ten s\u00a0pohonn\u00fdmi hmotami).<\/p>\n

Jak je to s cenami\u00a0energi\u00ed?\u00a0Pod\u00edl v\u00fddaj\u016f na energie na celkov\u00fdch n\u00e1kladech (po\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch jako hodnota produkce sn\u00ed\u017een\u00e1 o hrub\u00fd provozn\u00ed p\u0159ebytek) se sice v posledn\u00edch letech p\u0159ed covidem v oboru v\u00fdroby chleba pohyboval (podle \u00fadaj\u016f Eurostatu) kolem pouh\u00fdch cca 4 %, ale (velkoobchodn\u00ed) ceny energi\u00ed jsou v tuto chv\u00edli cca 4-5kr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed rokem. Pokud bychom u cen pro firmy p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali pro jednoduchost nap\u0159\u00edklad polovi\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fsak, zna\u010d\u00ed to zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed o cca 250 %. P\u0159i v\u00e1ze 4 % by pak dopad od cen chleba m\u011bl b\u00fdt kolem 10 %.<\/p>\n

V sou\u010dtu tedy r\u016fsty cen p\u0161enice a energi\u00ed m\u016f\u017eou nazna\u010dovat leto\u0161n\u00ed nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed ceny chleba mo\u017en\u00e1 o v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dtvrtinu. Z dat \u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu plyne, \u017ee aktu\u00e1ln\u011b je chl\u00e9b meziro\u010dn\u011b\u00a0dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 20 %. Dal\u0161\u00ed zdra\u017een\u00ed o mo\u017en\u00e1 i 10 % (tj. na 1 kg pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho p\u0161eni\u010dn\u00e9ho chleba o dal\u0161\u00ed cca 3 koruny) n\u00e1s tedy v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nemine.<\/p>\n

A to jsme do v\u00fdpo\u010dtu nezahrnuli r\u016fst mezd nebo cen n\u00e1jm\u016f…<\/p>\n

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Michal SKO\u0158EPA, ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a \u010dlen veden\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti ekonomick\u00e9\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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