{"id":227446,"date":"2021-06-16T11:47:17","date_gmt":"2021-06-16T10:47:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=227446"},"modified":"2021-06-16T11:52:31","modified_gmt":"2021-06-16T10:52:31","slug":"analyza-cs-sporitelny-ceske-hypoteky-a-jejich-odraz-v-bankovnich-vkladech-domacnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=227446","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA \u010cS. SPO\u0158ITELNY: Kv\u011btnov\u00fd objem nov\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k byl z historick\u00e9ho hlediska velmi vysok\u00fd"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-216005 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"632\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png 1200w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-768x404.png 768w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-1024x539.png 1024w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-678x357.png 678w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-917x483.png 917w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6>Podle \u010derstv\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f hypoindexu byl i kv\u011btnov\u00fd objem nov\u011b poskytnut\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k (v\u010detn\u011b refinancovan\u00fdch) z\u00a0historick\u00e9ho hlediska velmi vysok\u00fd:<\/h6>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-227447\" src=\"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/16\/graf-spo\u0159itelna-160621-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"357\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/16\/graf-spo\u0159itelna-160621-1.png 318w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/16\/graf-spo\u0159itelna-160621-1-300x178.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6>Za t\u00edmto v\u00fdsledkem st\u00e1l nejen op\u011bt vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed objem pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky, ale tak\u00e9 vysok\u00fd po\u010det hypot\u00e9k:<\/h6>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-227448\" src=\"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/16\/graf-spo\u0159itelna-160621-2-300x178.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"355\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/16\/graf-spo\u0159itelna-160621-2-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/16\/graf-spo\u0159itelna-160621-2.png 314w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/p>\n<h6 class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\"><strong>Pr\u00e1v\u011b vysok\u00fd po\u010det hypot\u00e9k v\u00a0posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch nazna\u010duje, \u017ee vysok\u00e9 objemy nov\u011b poskytnut\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k jsou aspo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b reakc\u00ed na o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd\/po\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed r\u016fst (hypote\u010dn\u00edch) \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, tedy \u017ee jde o \u2013 hezky \u010desky \u0159e\u010deno \u2013 frontloading.\u00a0<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-216715 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/25\/michal-sko\u0159epa.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"104\" height=\"133\" \/>Ten m\u016f\u017ee je\u0161t\u011b p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f pokra\u010dovat, a to hned ze t\u0159\u00ed d\u016fvod\u016f:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Hypote\u010dn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby zat\u00edm rostou jen pomalu a jsou nad\u00e1le pom\u011brn\u011b n\u00edzko.<\/li>\n<li>Bankovn\u00ed sektor m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0d\u016fsledku dosavadn\u00edho n\u00e1poru chytat ve schvalov\u00e1n\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed lehk\u00e9 zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed.<\/li>\n<li>Na podzim nelze vylou\u010dit p\u0159\u00edklon \u010cNB ke znovunastaven\u00ed limit\u016f na hypot\u00e9ky, a to by vedlo k\u00a0nov\u00e9 vln\u011b frontloadingu, tentokr\u00e1t ve snaze \u010derpat hypot\u00e9ku p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem platnosti t\u011bchto limit\u016f.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">Ka\u017ed\u00fd frontloading ale jednou skon\u010d\u00ed, a skon\u010d\u00ed i tento. Takto \u201eusp\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9\u201c hypot\u00e9ky pak m\u016f\u017eou na trhu naopak chyb\u011bt. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok by tak mohl b\u00fdt ve znamen\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho zklidn\u011bn\u00ed situace, kdy objem nov\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k m\u016f\u017ee oproti leto\u0161ku v\u00fdrazn\u011b klesnout.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">P\u0159ekotn\u00fd r\u016fst objemu hypot\u00e9k zkusme d\u00e1t do souvislosti\u00a0s \u010dasto zmi\u0148ovan\u00fdm r\u016fstem vklad\u016f dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed objem nov\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k bez refinancov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010din\u00ed za posledn\u00edch, tj. &#8220;covidov\u00fdch&#8221; 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f podle dat \u010cNB necel\u00fdch 25 miliard K\u010d. Pokud se kolem 90 % prodej\u016f nemovitost\u00ed t\u00fdk\u00e1 sekund\u00e1rn\u00edho trhu (kde nemovitost prod\u00e1v\u00e1 dom\u00e1cnost, nikoli developer), znamen\u00e1 to \u010dist\u00fd m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti z prodeje nemovitost\u00ed (a\u0165 u\u017e n\u011bjak\u00fd d\u016fm nebo byt prodala, nebo ne) ve v\u00fd\u0161i kolem 22 mld. K\u010d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">V p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech se toto \u010d\u00edslo pohybovalo kolem 16 mld. K\u010d. Za celou dobu koronakrize tedy tyto p\u0159\u00edjmy p\u0159es\u00e1hly p\u0159edchoz\u00ed norm\u00e1l o n\u011bjak\u00fdch 70-80 mld. K\u010d. Z toho lze na inflaci cen nemovitost\u00ed sv\u00e9st dejme tomu 10 mld. K\u010d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">Jestli\u017ee celkov\u00e9 vklady dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed v bank\u00e1ch p\u0159es\u00e1hly norm\u00e1l v \u00fahrnu o necel\u00fdch 200 mld. K\u010d, pak ve v\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00e9 logice\u00a0<b>zhruba t\u0159etinu nadnorm\u00e1ln\u00edho n\u00e1r\u016fstu vklad\u016f dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed m\u016f\u017eeme vysv\u011btlit jako p\u0159\u00edjmy dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed z prodeje nemovitost\u00ed<\/b>.\u00a0Tento odhad bychom m\u011bli zv\u00fd\u0161it, pokud\u00a0dom\u00e1cnosti p\u0159i n\u00e1kupu nemovitosti na hypot\u00e9ku \u010dasto hrad\u00ed\u00a0akontaci i z jin\u00fdch zdroj\u016f ne\u017e ze sv\u00fdch bankovn\u00edch vklad\u016f (nap\u0159\u00edklad prodejem sv\u00fdch pod\u00edlov\u00fdch list\u016f); a naopak bychom jej m\u011bli sn\u00ed\u017eit, pokud dom\u00e1cnosti po prodeji nemovitosti \u010dasto p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy z prodeje nemovitost\u00ed mimo sv\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed vklady (nap\u0159\u00edklad do pod\u00edlov\u00fdch list\u016f).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Michal SKO\u0158EPA,\u00a0<\/b>ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a \u010dlen V\u00fdboru pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Podle <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":216005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227446"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=227446"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227446\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":227455,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227446\/revisions\/227455"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/216005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=227446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=227446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=227446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}