{"id":226069,"date":"2021-06-03T09:00:14","date_gmt":"2021-06-03T08:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=226069"},"modified":"2021-06-03T09:03:36","modified_gmt":"2021-06-03T08:03:36","slug":"analyza-cs-sporitelny-deficit-statniho-rozpoctu-vychazi-letos-uz-pres-400-miliard-korun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=226069","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA \u010cS. SPO\u0158ITELNY: Deficit st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu vych\u00e1z\u00ed letos u\u017e p\u0159es 400 miliard korun, v\u00edce ne\u017e loni"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-216005 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"632\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png 1200w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-768x404.png 768w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-1024x539.png 1024w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-678x357.png 678w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-917x483.png 917w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div>\n<h6>Ministerstvo financ\u00ed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfcr.cz\/cs\/aktualne\/tiskove-zpravy\/2021\/pokladni-plneni-sr-42018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">zve\u0159ejnilo<\/a>\u00a0po\u010d\u00e1tkem t\u00fddne \u010d\u00edsla o hospoda\u0159en\u00ed vl\u00e1dy za leto\u0161n\u00ed (leden a\u017e) kv\u011bten. \u010c\u00edsla\u00a0vedla\u00a0leckoho\u00a0k \u00favah\u00e1m, \u017ee leto\u0161n\u00ed schv\u00e1len\u00fd deficit 500 mld. K\u010d se snad nakonec stane skute\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/h6>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-216715 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/25\/michal-sko\u0159epa.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"104\" height=\"133\" \/>Zkusme od pouh\u00fdch \u00favah p\u0159ej\u00edt ke konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm \u010d\u00edsl\u016fm. S\u00a0vyu\u017eit\u00edm metodiky, kterou jsem popsal u\u017e p\u0159ed necel\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.aktualne.cz\/blogy\/michal-skorepa.php?itemid=39865\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>zde<\/strong><\/a>, dostaneme za leden-kv\u011bten 2021 n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdsledky:<\/p>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>P\u0159\u00edjmy jsou oproti trendu sn\u00ed\u017eeny covidem o cca 81 mld.<\/li>\n<li>V\u00fddaje jsou covidem zv\u00fd\u0161eny o cca 86 mld.<\/li>\n<li>Na covid tedy m\u016f\u017eeme sv\u00e9st deficit cca 167 mld.<\/li>\n<li>Skute\u010dn\u00fd deficit je 262 mld., tak\u017ee bez covidu by deficit \u010dinil kolem 95 mld.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div>Tomuto deficitu bez covidu za prvn\u00edch leto\u0161n\u00edch p\u011bt m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f ve v\u00fd\u0161i 95 mld. odpov\u00edd\u00e1 celoro\u010dn\u00ed &#8220;bezcovidov\u00fd&#8221; deficit cca 230 mld. (Ano, toto posledn\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo je to, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 smysl srovn\u00e1vat s\u00a0v\u00fdsledky za minul\u00e9 roky. Pr\u016fm\u011br za roky 2000-2019 \u010din\u00ed \u201epouh\u00fdch\u201c 70 mld. K\u010d, a\u010dkoli pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 i n\u011bkolik reces\u00ed. Z tohoto srovn\u00e1n\u00ed je vid\u011bt, jak v\u00fdrazn\u011b se vl\u00e1da loni a letos pod pl\u00e1\u0161t\u00edkem covidu &#8220;rozjela&#8221;.)<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Nav\u00edc je tu ale covid. Pokud by letos vl\u00e1du p\u0159i\u0161el celkov\u011b nap\u0159\u00edklad na 150 % toho, na co ji p\u0159i\u0161el v\u00a0obdob\u00ed leden-duben (prozat\u00edm, tj. za obdob\u00ed leden-kv\u011bten, je to jen 128 %), vedl by s\u00e1m o sob\u011b ke &#8220;covidov\u00e9mu&#8221; deficitu ve v\u00fd\u0161i cca 200 mld.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Prost\u00fdm se\u010dten\u00edm celoro\u010dn\u00edho salda covidov\u00e9ho (-200 mld.) a bezcovidov\u00e9ho (-230 mld.) nakonec dost\u00e1v\u00e1me odhad hodnoty celkov\u00e9ho salda st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu za cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok: 430 mld. K\u010d.<\/div>\n<div>Jde samoz\u0159ejm\u011b o velmi hrub\u00fd odhad, s\u00a0p\u0159esnost\u00ed na des\u00edtky miliard (a je podm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd nyn\u00ed dostupn\u00fdmi informacemi). I tak u\u017e ale za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 b\u00fdt z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee leto\u0161n\u00ed hospoda\u0159en\u00ed vl\u00e1dy dopadne je\u0161t\u011b o pozn\u00e1n\u00ed h\u016f\u0159 ne\u017e loni (-367 mld.).<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Takt\u00e9\u017e za\u010d\u00e1tkem t\u00fddne\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfcr.cz\/cs\/aktualne\/tiskove-zpravy\/2021\/pripravy-rozpoctu-na-rok-2022-startuji-42016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0p\u0159edstava MF o saldu v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce (-390 mld. K\u010d) tak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt paradoxn\u011b nakonec m\u00edrn\u00fdm meziro\u010dn\u00edm zlep\u0161en\u00edm. Kdyby ov\u0161em vl\u00e1da a parlament nep\u0159ich\u00e1zely s\u00a0rozhazova\u010dn\u00fdmi n\u00e1pady, jako je t\u0159eba dramatick\u00e1 redukce zdan\u011bn\u00ed mezd nebo nadz\u00e1konn\u00e1 valorizace d\u016fchod\u016f, mohlo b\u00fdt zlep\u0161en\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b mnohem v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Michal SKO\u0158EPA,\u00a0<\/b>ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a \u010dlen V\u00fdboru pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Ministerstvo <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":216005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226069"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=226069"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226069\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":226074,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226069\/revisions\/226074"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/216005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=226069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=226069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=226069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}