{"id":221251,"date":"2021-04-15T09:40:33","date_gmt":"2021-04-15T08:40:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=221251"},"modified":"2021-04-19T13:12:04","modified_gmt":"2021-04-19T12:12:04","slug":"analyza-cs-sporitelny-nova-prognoza-ministerstva-financi-a-nova-prognoza-pani-ministryne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=221251","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA \u010cS. SPO\u0158ITELNY: Nov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za ministerstva financ\u00ed a nov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za pan\u00ed ministryn\u011b Schillerov\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Ve sv\u00e9 nov\u00e9\u00a0makroekonomick\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze<\/a>\u00a0(jde jako ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b v\u00a0dubnu o z\u00e1klad pro chystan\u00fd Konvergen\u010dn\u00ed program) ponechalo MF odhad r\u016fstu re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho HDP pro leto\u0161ek na 3,1 %, co\u017e je bl\u00edzko\u00a0na\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3ze<\/a>\u00a03,3 % (pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok odhaduje r\u016fst na 3,7 %; my \u010dek\u00e1me 4,3 %). Ohledn\u011b\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00ed inflace se MF s\u00a0n\u00e1mi dokonce zcela shoduje (2,5 %), na rozd\u00edl nap\u0159\u00edklad od \u010cNB (2,0 %).<\/h6>\n

\"\"Nezam\u011bstnanost by m\u011bla kulminovat v 2h20 z\u0159eteln\u011b pod \u00farovn\u00ed 4 %, kter\u00e1 se d\u00e1 pova\u017eovat za rovnov\u00e1\u017enou. Z\u00a0tohoto pohledu je pak docela zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee i p\u0159esto MF ne\u010dek\u00e1 tlak na rychl\u00fd r\u016fst mezd: pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 mzda by i v\u00a0roce 2022 m\u011bla r\u016fst tempem pod 2 %, co\u017e je tempo historicky vzato velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9, a to i po zohledn\u011bn\u00ed (jak upozor\u0148uje MF) zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 leto\u0161n\u00ed srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladny.<\/p>\n

Velkou pozornost samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pout\u00e1 pas\u00e1\u017e t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se hospoda\u0159en\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho sektoru. Letos by m\u011blo podle progn\u00f3zy skon\u010dit schodkem 8,8 % HDP, zat\u00edmco v roce 2022 by schodek m\u011bl \u010dinit u\u017e \u201ejen\u201c 5,9 %.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0del\u0161\u00edm horizontu ale progn\u00f3za v\u00a0t\u00e9to oblasti ukazuje hned na dv\u011b kolize se z\u00e1konem 207\/2020 o pravidlech rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 odpov\u011bdnosti. Zaprv\u00e9, v\u00a0roce 2024 podle n\u00ed bude dosa\u017eeno \u00farovn\u011b dluhu 55 %, p\u0159i n\u00ed\u017e se aktivuje \u201edluhov\u00e1 brzda\u201c. (Zde je ale t\u0159eba upozornit, \u017ee a\u010dkoli se \u010dasto uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fd z\u00e1kon \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 v\u00a0takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b sestaven\u00ed rozpo\u010dtu bez schodku,\u00a0ve skute\u010dnosti<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>jeho \u00a7 14 \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 pouze sestaven\u00ed rozpo\u010dtu, kter\u00fd povede \u201ek dlouhodob\u011b udr\u017eiteln\u00e9mu stavu ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed\u201c \u2013 co\u017e je daleko obecn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavek.)<\/p>\n

Zadruh\u00e9, progn\u00f3za ukazuje, \u017ee v\u00a0roce 2024 dojde k\u00a0poru\u0161en\u00ed aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho zn\u011bn\u00ed \u00a7 10a odst. 1 t\u00e9ho\u017e z\u00e1kona: toto zn\u011bn\u00ed po\u017eaduje, aby rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 saldo v\u00a0dan\u00e9m roce bylo v\u017edy aspo\u0148 o 5 desetin procentn\u00edho bodu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00a0roce p\u0159edchoz\u00edm, ale v\u00a0progn\u00f3ze je zlep\u0161en\u00ed schodku z\u00a0roku 2023 do roku 2024 jen v\u00a0rozsahu 2 desetin procentn\u00edho bodu (z \u20115,4 na -5,2 % HDP).<\/p>\n

A tak ministerstvo dost nezvykle p\u0159isp\u011bchalo s\u00a0vyd\u00e1n\u00edm p\u00edsemn\u00e9ho\u00a0\u201ekoment\u00e1\u0159e ministryn\u011b financ\u00ed Aleny Schillerov\u00e9 k\u00a0fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed predikci\u201c<\/a><\/strong>. Koment\u00e1\u0159 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee progn\u00f3za je spo\u010dtena na z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159edpokladu\u00a0no policy change<\/i>, tedy co by se d\u011blo, pokud by ministerstvo financ\u00ed v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti nep\u0159ikro\u010dilo k\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm diskre\u010dn\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm p\u0159\u00edjmy nebo sni\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm v\u00fddaje.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edseln\u00fdm j\u00e1drem koment\u00e1\u0159e jsou z\u00e1kladn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky alternativn\u00ed progn\u00f3zy, kter\u00e1 bude obsa\u017eena v\u00a0Konvergen\u010dn\u00edm programu (m\u00e1 b\u00fdt schv\u00e1len vl\u00e1dou do konce dubna) a kter\u00e1 bude odr\u00e1\u017eet pl\u00e1novan\u00e1, ale zat\u00edm neschv\u00e1len\u00e1 diskre\u010dn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed. Takov\u00e1 alternativn\u00ed progn\u00f3za odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed zat\u00edm neschv\u00e1len\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny a \u00favahy je standardn\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Konvergen\u010dn\u00edho programu \u2013 co\u017e te\u010f donutilo pan\u00ed ministryni kone\u010dn\u011b opustit k\u00e1non (kter\u00e9ho se i p\u0159es jeho zjevnou absurdnost dosud tvrdohlav\u011b dr\u017eela), \u017ee aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1da nem\u016f\u017ee malovat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro obdob\u00ed po volb\u00e1ch, kdy u\u017e m\u016f\u017ee p\u016fsobit jin\u00e1 vl\u00e1da.<\/p>\n

Alternativn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli z\u0159ejm\u011b sestaven zat\u00edm jen na pokyn samotn\u00e9 pan\u00ed ministryn\u011b (viz v jej\u00edm koment\u00e1\u0159i pou\u017eit\u00e1 formulace \u201eza sebe mohu \u0159\u00edct\u201c), nicm\u00e9n\u011b po schv\u00e1len\u00ed Konvergen\u010dn\u00edho programu vl\u00e1dou p\u016fjde z\u0159ejm\u011b o sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 celovl\u00e1dn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdchodisko alternativn\u00ed progn\u00f3zy, tedy \u201ekombinace \u00fasporn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed na p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9 i v\u00fddajov\u00e9 stran\u011b\u201c, je ov\u0161em ve\u00a0v\u010derej\u0161\u00edm koment\u00e1\u0159i pops\u00e1no jen velmi stru\u010dn\u011b a mlhav\u011b: \u201epo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me s komplexn\u00ed reviz\u00ed da\u0148ov\u00e9ho mixu, v\u010detn\u011b \u00faprav v oblasti spot\u0159ebn\u00edch dan\u00ed, revize zdan\u011bn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed a pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fsledn\u00e9 redukce da\u0148ov\u00fdch v\u00fdjimek. D\u00e1le po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me se zmrazen\u00edm plat\u016f \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f, st\u00e1tn\u00edch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f a \u00fastavn\u00edch \u010dinitel\u016f, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm provozn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f kapitol o 5-10% a dal\u0161\u00ed racionalizac\u00ed agend. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktorem jsou tak\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 pen\u00edze, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b 287 miliard z kon\u010d\u00edc\u00edho programov\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed 2014-2020 a 962 miliard z nov\u00e9ho programov\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed 2021-2027, kde budeme usilovat o rychlej\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1b\u011bh a rovnom\u011brn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zapojov\u00e1n\u00ed evropsk\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f v b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch i kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch projektech<\/i>.\u201c Uvid\u00edme, jestli v Konvergen\u010dn\u00edm programu budou p\u0159edstavy pan\u00ed ministryn\u011b o konsolidaci \u010desk\u00fdch ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed pops\u00e1ny konkr\u00e9tn\u011bji.<\/p>\n

Na z\u00e1v\u011br si dovol\u00edm t\u0159i pozn\u00e1mky k\u00a0t\u00e9to alternativn\u00ed progn\u00f3ze:<\/strong><\/p>\n

(1) Co se t\u00fd\u010de pas\u00e1\u017ee o evropsk\u00fdch pen\u011bz\u00edch: pro p\u0159esnost dodejme, \u017ee makroprogn\u00f3za s\u00a0t\u00edmto p\u0159\u00edjmem podle v\u0161eho po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 (ostatn\u011b bylo by hodn\u011b zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, kdyby s\u00a0n\u00edm nepo\u010d\u00edtala). Zm\u011bnu oproti progn\u00f3ze tedy pan\u00ed ministryn\u011b nejsp\u00ed\u0161 vid\u00ed jen v\u00a0onom \u201erychlej\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1b\u011bhu\u201c. Tak to by \u2013 po minul\u00fdch zku\u0161enostech \u2013 byl docela husarsk\u00fd kousek.<\/p>\n

(2) V\u00a0uveden\u00e9 citaci jen tak zb\u011b\u017en\u011b zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 \u201edal\u0161\u00ed racionalizace agend\u201c je nebo by m\u011bla b\u00fdt dle m\u00e9ho soudu zcela z\u00e1sadn\u00ed prioritou \u2013 tedy pokud je t\u00edm my\u0161lena automatizace a odstra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed zbyte\u010dn\u00fdch a duplicitn\u00edch agend (jde o daleko p\u0159\u00ednosn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed snahu ne\u017e trochu populistick\u00e9 plo\u0161n\u00e9 zmrazov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ednick\u00fdch plat\u016f, kter\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u011b u\u0161et\u0159\u00ed jednotky miliard, ale oslab\u00ed mezi \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky loajalitu a m\u016f\u017ee zp\u016fsobit odchod t\u011bch lep\u0161\u00edch do priv\u00e1tu).<\/p>\n

Dosavadn\u00ed mnohalet\u00e1 zku\u0161enost na poli racionalizace st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1vy je ale tristn\u00ed. \u010cesk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1va sama sebe zracionalizovat nedok\u00e1\u017ee (pokud ve skute\u010dnosti v\u016fbec chce). Proto jsem na tomto poli dlouhodob\u011b zast\u00e1ncem investice do d\u016fkladn\u00e9ho person\u00e1ln\u00edho a agendov\u00e9ho auditu (nap\u0159. podle\u00a0vzoru slovensk\u00e9ho ministerstva financ\u00ed<\/a><\/strong>), ov\u0161em proveden\u00e9ho extern\u00edm subjektem, tedy poradenskou firmou nebo relevantn\u00ed instituc\u00ed zvenku. \u010cesko si sice ned\u00e1vno pozvalo OECD na posouzen\u00ed penzijn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu; ale zrovna v\u00a0t\u00e9to sf\u00e9\u0159e byly probl\u00e9my i cesty ven vcelku jasn\u00e9 i bez takov\u00e9 extern\u00ed anal\u00fdzy.<\/p>\n

(3) Ve v\u00fd\u010dtu pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch \u00faprav da\u0148ov\u00e9ho mixu bohu\u017eel nevid\u00edm probuzen\u00ed dan\u011b z\u00a0nemovitost\u00ed (nikoli plo\u0161n\u00e9, ale selektivn\u00ed, a tedy politicky realizovateln\u00e9). To by krom\u011b p\u0159\u00edlivu pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch miliard do ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch rozpo\u010dt\u016f (viz doln\u00ed, zelen\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti sloupc\u016f v grafu n\u00ed\u017ee) p\u0159itom mohlo z\u00e1rove\u0148 aspo\u0148 trochu sn\u00ed\u017eit nap\u011bt\u00ed na trhu nemovitost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

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Michal SKO\u0158EPA,\u00a0<\/b>ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a \u010dlen V\u00fdboru pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy<\/p>\n

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