{"id":219891,"date":"2021-03-31T17:28:21","date_gmt":"2021-03-31T16:28:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=219891"},"modified":"2021-03-31T17:33:54","modified_gmt":"2021-03-31T16:33:54","slug":"analyza-cs-sporitelny-petr-kellner-a-makroekonomicky-dopad-jeho-tragicke-smrti-ctete-zde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=219891","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA \u010cS. SPO\u0158ITELNY: Podnikatel Petr Kellner a makroekonomick\u00fd dopad\u00a0jeho tragick\u00e9 smrti"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Makroekonomick\u00fd dopad\u00a0tragick\u00e9 smrti Petra Kellnera\u00a0se d\u00e1 velmi \u0161patn\u011b n\u011bjak rozumn\u011b kvantifikovat: t\u011b\u017eko lze odhadnout, jak se bude li\u0161it skute\u010dn\u00fd vliv aktivit skupiny PPF B.V. na \u010deskou ekonomiku od vlivu, kter\u00fd by tyto aktivity do budoucna m\u011bly v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by nad\u00e1le st\u00e1l v\u00a0jej\u00edm \u010dele.
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\"\"Bylo by jist\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 m\u00edt p\u0159edstavu t\u0159eba aspo\u0148 o pod\u00edlu Petra Kellnera a jeho spoluvlastn\u00edk\u016f a jejich zam\u011bstnanc\u016f na \u010desk\u00e9m HDP. Odhad je zt\u00ed\u017een t\u00edm, \u017ee jednotliv\u00e9 v\u00a0\u010cesku p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00ed firmy v\u00a0r\u00e1mci skupiny PPF B.V. (kter\u00e1 je vrcholem vlastnick\u00e9 struktury Kellnerova imp\u00e9ria) jsou vlastn\u011bny bez \u010desk\u00e9ho holdingov\u00e9ho \u201emezipatra\u201c, kter\u00e9 by reportovalo hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky za aktivity jen v samotn\u00e9m \u010cesku.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud nap\u0159\u00edklad se\u010dteme dv\u011b z\u00e1kladn\u00ed slo\u017eky p\u0159idan\u00e9 hodnoty, tedy osobn\u00ed n\u00e1klady a zisk p\u0159ed\u00a0zdan\u011bn\u00edm, z\u00a0v\u00fdro\u010dn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v za rok 2019 \u010dty\u0159 firem, kter\u00e9 p\u016fsob\u00ed dominantn\u011b jen v\u00a0\u010cesku (O2, CETIN, PPF Banka, Air Bank), dostaneme cca 7 desetin procenta tehdej\u0161\u00ed p\u0159idan\u00e9 hodnoty \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky.\u00a0Kellner m\u011bl tedy celkov\u011b pod vlastnickou kontrolou \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1 kolem 1\u00a0% v\u00fdkonu \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00a0hlediska makro \u010d\u00edsel je\u0161t\u011b m\u016f\u017eeme dodat, \u017ee Kellner byl jedn\u00edm z\u00a0mnoha \u010desk\u00fdch podnikatel\u016f, jejich\u017e aktivity mohou dlouhodob\u011b p\u0159isp\u00edvat k\u00a0rozkl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dat mezi<\/span><\/p>\n

(A) HDP (co\u017e je v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 p\u0159idan\u00e1 hodnota plus nevelk\u00e1 polo\u017eka t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se dan\u00ed) coby objemem hodnoty vytvo\u0159en\u00fdm v\u00a0\u010cesku a<\/span><\/p>\n

(B) hrub\u00fdm n\u00e1rodn\u00edm d\u016fchodem (HND) coby objemem hodnoty z\u00edskan\u00e9 obyvateli \u010ceska na stran\u011b druh\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ohledn\u011b srovn\u00e1n\u00ed HDP a HND pat\u0159\u00ed \u010cesko v r\u00e1mci Evropy mezi zem\u011b s\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm rozd\u00edlem (tj. vytvo\u0159\u00ed se toho tady v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edc, ne\u017e kolik skrze zisky a mzdy z\u00edskaj\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 \u010ceska), i kdy\u017e je zast\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 Irskem a Lucemburskem coby dv\u011bma zem\u011bmi s mnoha statistick\u00fdmi, \u00fa\u010detn\u00edmi a da\u0148ov\u00fdmi zvl\u00e1\u0161tnostmi:<\/span><\/p>\n

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Zdroj: AMECO.<\/i><\/p>\n

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Kellnerovo imp\u00e9rium toti\u017e s\u00eddl\u00ed v\u00a0Nizozem\u00ed, tak\u017ee z\u00a0pohledu inkasovan\u00e9ho zisku byla tato skupina zahrani\u010dn\u00edm subjektem (tj. jej\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy z\u00a0aktivit v \u010cesku byly sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch dividend).<\/span><\/p>\n

Samotn\u00e1 firma PPF B.V. tuto skute\u010dnost nijak nezast\u00edr\u00e1 a na\u00a0sv\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0vcelku bez obalu uv\u00e1d\u00ed: \u201eD\u016fvodem registrace holdingov\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed skupiny PPF v Nizozemsku je tamn\u00ed stabiln\u00ed legislativn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed, na n\u011bj\u017e nemaj\u00ed politick\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy a v\u00fdsledky voleb z\u00e1sadn\u00ed vliv. Dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fvodem registrace v Nizozemsku jsou precizn\u00ed dohody o ochran\u011b investic s co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem zem\u00ed cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta, co\u017e je, vzhledem ke glob\u00e1ln\u00edm investi\u010dn\u00edm aktivit\u00e1m Skupiny, pro PPF zcela z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u011bc. \u010cesk\u00e1 republika bohu\u017eel zat\u00edm takovou kontinuitu pr\u00e1vn\u00edho r\u00e1mce a robustn\u00ed ochranu investic v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku nenab\u00edz\u00ed. Stejn\u011b jako PPF jsou v Nizozemsku registrov\u00e1ny i dal\u0161\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti s glob\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159esahem: nap\u0159\u00edklad AVAST, Linet, v\u00fdrobce lihovin Rudolf Jel\u00ednek a \u0159ada dal\u0161\u00edch.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e1le PPF nazna\u010duje, \u017ee v\u00a0Nizozem\u00ed s\u00eddl\u00ed nikoli z\u00a0da\u0148ov\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f: \u201eA co se t\u00fd\u010de dan\u00ed: v Nizozemsku je da\u0148 z dividendy toto\u017en\u00e1 se sazbou dan\u011b, kterou uplat\u0148uje \u010cesk\u00e1 republika (15 %).\u201c (Mo\u017enost, \u017ee da\u0148ov\u00e1 povinnost PPF je v\u00a0Nizozem\u00ed p\u0159ece jen men\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e by byla v\u00a0\u010cR, ov\u0161em i tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00e1. D\u00edky r\u016fzn\u00fdm\u00a0odpo\u010dt\u016fm a v\u00fdjimk\u00e1m<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0toti\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt PPF schopna\u00a0v Nizozem\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00edho da\u0148ov\u00e9ho z\u00e1kladu<\/a>,<\/strong> ze kter\u00e9ho pak svou da\u0148ovou povinnost onou stejnou sazbou po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1.\u00a0Bez znalosti detail\u016f jde ale samoz\u0159ejm\u011b o pouhou spekulaci.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 z\u00a0\u010ceska v\u00a0minul\u00fdch letech odch\u00e1zely na \u00fa\u010dty \u201ecizozemsk\u00e9\u201c PPF B.V. do Nizozem\u00ed, sni\u017eovaly \u010desk\u00fd hrub\u00fd n\u00e1rodn\u00ed d\u016fchod (a t\u00edm statisticky \u201eochuzovaly\u201c obyvatele \u010ceska). N\u00e1sledn\u011b ov\u0161em kompenzovaly toto sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed ve chv\u00edli, kdy se vracely z\u00a0Nizozem\u00ed jako osobn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem Petra Kellnera a dal\u0161\u00edch \u010desk\u00fdch spoluvlastn\u00edk\u016f akci\u00ed firem v\u00a0r\u00e1mci PPF B.V. \u2013 tedy v m\u00ed\u0159e, ve kter\u00e9 se takto skute\u010dn\u011b vracely a ve kter\u00e9 se \u010desk\u00fdm statistik\u016fm (v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0na p\u016fd\u011b \u010cNB) poda\u0159ilo toto vracen\u00ed zachytit (ve statistice prvotn\u00edch d\u016fchod\u016f v\u00a0r\u00e1mci platebn\u00ed bilance).<\/span><\/p>\n

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Michal SKO\u0158EPA,\u00a0<\/b>ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a \u010dlen V\u00fdboru pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy<\/p>\n

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