{"id":216733,"date":"2021-02-28T13:26:02","date_gmt":"2021-02-28T12:26:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=216733"},"modified":"2021-02-28T13:26:58","modified_gmt":"2021-02-28T12:26:58","slug":"analyza-cs-sporitelny-kolik-hdp-ztracime-denne-v-nynejsim-stupni-uzavreni-nasi-ekonomiky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=216733","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA \u010cS. SPO\u0158ITELNY: Kolik HDP ztr\u00e1c\u00edme denn\u011b v nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm stupni uzav\u0159en\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky? \u010ct\u011bte zde"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Minule jsem prezentoval propo\u010det, dle kter\u00e9ho nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stupe\u0148 uzav\u0159en\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky vede k\u00a0denn\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm pro \u010desk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det v\u00a0objemu p\u0159es 1 miliardu K\u010d – p\u0159esn\u011bji cca 1,2 miliardy K\u010d.<\/h6>\n

\"\"Podobn\u00fd propo\u010det, op\u011bt op\u0159en\u00fd o lo\u0148skou skute\u010dnost a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161i oxfordsk\u00e9ho indexu p\u0159\u00edsnosti, m\u016f\u017eeme vyu\u017e\u00edt i v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee n\u00e1s zaj\u00edm\u00e1, jak vysok\u00e9 jsou denn\u00ed n\u00e1klady nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho lockdownu pro samotnou ekonomiku, tedy pro \u010desk\u00e9 HDP.<\/p>\n

\u0158ekn\u011bme, \u017ee bez covidu by ekonomika loni rostla 2%; ve skute\u010dnosti dle prvn\u00edho odhadu klesla o 5,6 %. V\u00a0tom p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dopad covidu na lo\u0148sk\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 HDP \u010dinil<\/p>\n

-5,6 % HDP – 2 % HDP = -7,6 p.b. HDP = cca 400 mld. K\u010d<\/p>\n

(p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee defl\u00e1tor by byl v obou sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00edch podobn\u00fd, tak\u017ee rozd\u00edl v tempech r\u016fstu \u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho HDP je stejn\u00fd jako rozd\u00edl v\u00a0tempech r\u016fstu nomin\u00e1ln\u00edho HDP). Uveden\u00fd v\u00fdsledek je ve v\u00fd\u0161i hezky kulat\u00fdch \u010dty\u0159 t\u0159etin dopadu (300 mld. K\u010d), kter\u00fd jsem v\u010dera uvedl pro st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det.<\/p>\n

On\u011bch 400 mld. K\u010d ro\u010dn\u011b zna\u010d\u00ed pro rok 2020 kolem 24 milion\u016f K\u010d na 1 bod indexu p\u0159\u00edsnosti denn\u011b. V tuto chv\u00edli index p\u0159\u00edsnosti \u010din\u00ed 69.\u00a0Hrub\u00fd odhad denn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty na leto\u0161n\u00edm HDP tedy vych\u00e1z\u00ed kolem 1,7 mld. K\u010d<\/b>:<\/p>\n

24*69 = 1,7 mld. K\u010d.<\/p>\n

Tento dopad by byl samoz\u0159ejm\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, neb\u00fdt pr\u00e1v\u011b pomoci ekonomice ze strany zadlu\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed se vl\u00e1dy.\u00a0O kolik\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, to je t\u011b\u017eko odhadnout. O celou \u010d\u00e1stku cca 1,2 mld. K\u010d, o kterou denn\u011b p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det, to nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nebude, proto\u017ee velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st vl\u00e1dn\u00ed pomoci m\u00e1 podobu transfer\u016f, kde za\u00a0vypl\u00e1cenou\u00a0podporu od p\u0159\u00edjemc\u016f \u017e\u00e1dnou p\u0159idanou hodnotu (tj. HDP) vl\u00e1da ani nikdo jin\u00fd nedost\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Transfery by ale m\u011bly samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zvy\u0161ovat budouc\u00ed HDP. To je vlastn\u011b smysl v\u011bt\u0161iny z nich: d\u00edky nim se ekonomick\u00e9 vazby b\u011bhem koronakrize nezp\u0159etrhaj\u00ed a po jej\u00edm skon\u010den\u00ed by se ekonomika m\u011bla rychleji vr\u00e1tit k\u00a0r\u016fstu norm\u00e1ln\u00edm tempem.<\/p>\n

Cel\u00fd popsan\u00fd propo\u010det se ov\u0161em zam\u011b\u0159uje jen na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj, tj. nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00e9 nebo mimoekonomick\u00e9 dopady (\u00famrt\u00ed, po\u0161kozen\u00e9 zdrav\u00ed, deprese, hor\u0161\u00ed vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed, …).<\/p>\n

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Michal SKO\u0158EPA,\u00a0<\/b>ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a \u010dlen V\u00fdboru pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy<\/p>\n

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