{"id":216711,"date":"2021-02-25T10:39:14","date_gmt":"2021-02-25T09:39:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=216711"},"modified":"2021-02-25T12:30:45","modified_gmt":"2021-02-25T11:30:45","slug":"analyza-cs-sporitelny-kolik-korun-stoji-nasi-verejnou-kasu-jeden-den-ekonomickych-uzavirek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=216711","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA \u010cS. SPO\u0158ITELNY: Kolik korun stoj\u00ed na\u0161i ve\u0159ejnou kasu jeden den ekonomick\u00fdch uzav\u00edrek"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-216005 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"632\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png 1200w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-768x404.png 768w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-1024x539.png 1024w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-678x357.png 678w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo-917x483.png 917w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6 class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">V\u00a0posledn\u00edch dnech se objevily nov\u00e9 odhady toho, jak rychle st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det krv\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00a0d\u016fsledku uzav\u0159en\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed ekonomiky, a tedy nutnosti poskytovat p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 kompenzace. Nap\u0159. m\u00edstop\u0159edseda vl\u00e1dy Havl\u00ed\u010dek\u00a0<span class=\"-wm-gmail-MsoHyperlink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investicniweb.cz\/havlicek-podpora-ramci-boje-s-pandemii-se-bude-muset-zrejme-zmenit-z-dotaci-na-zaruky-z-tendru-na\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prohl\u00e1sil<\/a><\/span>, \u017ee podpora ekonomiky p\u0159ijde v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti vl\u00e1du denn\u011b zhruba na miliardu.<\/h6>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-216715 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/25\/michal-sko\u0159epa.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"104\" height=\"133\" \/>R\u016fzn\u00e9 kompenza\u010dn\u00ed a jin\u00e9 platby, kter\u00e9 vyplynuly ze stavu v\u00a0ur\u010dit\u00e9m \u010dase, ov\u0161em m\u016f\u017eou b\u00fdt a jsou sv\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edjemci n\u00e1rokov\u00e1ny a vypl\u00e1ceny s\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdmi zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edmi. Rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd krvetok v\u00a0dan\u00e9m dni je tedy v\u017edy sm\u011bs\u00ed plateb v\u00e1\u017e\u00edc\u00edch se ve skute\u010dnosti k\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdm p\u0159edchoz\u00edm obdob\u00edm.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">Co s\u00a0t\u00edm? Jedna mo\u017enost je op\u0159\u00edt se o \u010d\u00edsla za cel\u00fd lo\u0148sk\u00fd rok a v\u00fdsledn\u00fd denn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br aplikovat na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci. Tedy ud\u011blat tyto dva v\u00fdpo\u010dty:<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">(A) kolik st\u00e1la st\u00e1tn\u00ed kasu loni v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru jedna \u201ejednotka uzav\u0159en\u00ed\u201c na jeden den,<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">(B) vyn\u00e1sobit v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo aktu\u00e1ln\u011b platn\u00fdm po\u010dtem jednotek uzav\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">S\u00edlu uzav\u0159en\u00ed ekonomiky budeme m\u011b\u0159it indexem p\u0159\u00edsnosti (stringency index) z\u00a0d\u00edlny\u00a0<span class=\"-wm-gmail-MsoHyperlink\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bsg.ox.ac.uk\/research\/research-projects\/coronavirus-government-response-tracker\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">t<strong>\u00fdmu v\u011bdc\u016f na Oxfordu<\/strong><\/a><\/span><strong>;<\/strong> pro dan\u00fd \u00fa\u010del je to jist\u011b proklat\u011b hrub\u00e1 m\u00edra, ale nic lep\u0161\u00edho asi nen\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">Dle m\u00fdch hrub\u00fdch propo\u010dt\u016f \u201eco by bylo, kdyby nebyl covid\u201c, p\u0159i\u0161el covid \u010deskou vl\u00e1du za cel\u00fd rok 2020 na cca 300 miliard korun. Jinak \u0159e\u010deno: neb\u00fdt covidu, byl by lo\u0148sk\u00fd deficit kolem 70 miliard.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">Z\u00a0t\u011bchto 300 miliard bylo asi 70 % d\u00e1no aktivn\u00edmi, \u201ediskre\u010dn\u00edmi\u201c kroky vl\u00e1dy (vl\u00e1da uv\u00e1d\u00ed 218 miliard) a zbytek automaticky, zejm\u00e9na zhor\u0161en\u00edm v\u00fdb\u011bru dan\u00ed kv\u016fli propadu ekonomiky.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">Index p\u0159\u00edsnosti pro \u010cesko m\u011bl loni pr\u016fm\u011brnou hodnotu 45. V\u00fdvoj po dnech ukazuje n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-216714\" src=\"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/25\/spo\u0159itelna-graf-250221.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"301\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/25\/spo\u0159itelna-graf-250221.png 321w, https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/25\/spo\u0159itelna-graf-250221-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">(zdroj:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>ourworldindata.org<\/strong><\/a>)<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">Jeden bodu indexu tak v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru loni p\u0159i\u0161el vl\u00e1du na cca<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">300\u00a0000 \/ 365 \/ 45 = 18<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">milion\u016f korun denn\u011b. V\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli m\u00e1 index hodnotu 69. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci v\u00fd\u0161e zvolen\u00fdch zjednodu\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f by tedy \u010desk\u00e1 pokladna m\u011bla aktu\u00e1ln\u011b kv\u016fli covidu krv\u00e1cet denn\u00edm tempem p\u0159es miliardu korun (69 * 0,018 mld. K\u010d).\u00a0V\u00fd\u0161e citovan\u00fd odhad vicepremi\u00e9ra Havl\u00ed\u010dka (kter\u00fd mo\u017en\u00e1 myslel jen diskre\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1klady) je vcelku bl\u00edzko.<\/p>\n<p class=\"-wm-MsoNormal\">A\u017e za\u010dne uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch protipandemick\u00fdch uzav\u00edrek a v\u016fbec a\u017e se ekonomika za\u010dne vracet k norm\u00e1lu, bude klesat aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnota indexu p\u0159\u00edsnosti, a tedy i z n\u00ed plynouc\u00ed odhad denn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f pro \u010desk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Michal SKO\u0158EPA,\u00a0<\/b>ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a \u010dlen V\u00fdboru pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; V\u00a0posledn\u00edch <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":216005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[128],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216711"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=216711"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216711\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":216735,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216711\/revisions\/216735"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/216005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=216711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=216711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=216711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}