{"id":216081,"date":"2021-02-23T08:13:54","date_gmt":"2021-02-23T07:13:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=216081"},"modified":"2021-02-25T12:32:55","modified_gmt":"2021-02-25T11:32:55","slug":"analyza-z-cs-sporitelny-hypoteky-budou-letos-zdrazovat-schodek-rozpoctu-skutecne-muze-byt-500-miliard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/?p=216081","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA \u010cS. SPO\u0158ITELNY: Hypot\u00e9ky letos podra\u017e\u00ed. Schodek rozpo\u010dtu skute\u010dn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt 500 miliard korun"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Sazba z\u00a0nov\u00fdch hypote\u010dn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f se velmi v\u011brn\u011b (se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f) dr\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdvoje st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fdch tr\u017en\u00edch (neboli mezibankovn\u00edch) sazeb, ty se zase dr\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdhledu kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch tr\u017en\u00edch sazeb, a ty se dr\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdhledu repo sazby. \u010c\u00edm jist\u011bj\u0161\u00ed tedy bude, \u017ee \u010cNB za\u010dne letos zvedat repo sazbu (a bude v\u00a0tom pokra\u010dovat i v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch letech), t\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161 lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat n\u00e1r\u016fsty v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v\u00a0ekonomice v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch hypote\u010dn\u00edch.<\/h6>\n
Hypot\u00e9ky budou letos zdra\u017eovat\"\"<\/h6>\n

\"\"N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf nazna\u010duje, jak pevn\u011b je sazba z\u00a0nov\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f na bydlen\u00ed (svisl\u00e1 osa) nav\u00e1z\u00e1na na st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 tr\u017en\u00ed sazby (vodorovn\u00e1 osa). Graf pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed data od po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2017, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e posledn\u00ed t\u0159i zn\u00e1m\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce (tj. \u0159\u00edjen-prosinec 2020) jsou zn\u00e1zorn\u011bny \u010derven\u011b. \u00dam\u011bra mezi ob\u011bma typy sazeb jez grafu vcelku z\u0159ejm\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Na\u0161e progn\u00f3za o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 na podzim tohoto roku p\u011btiletou tr\u017en\u00ed sazbu na \u00farovni kolem 1,4 %. V\u00a0logice v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho grafu by to znamenalo, \u017ee do konce leto\u0161ka by sazby u nov\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k\u00a0mohly\u00a0vystoupat\u00a0z\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b (t\u011bsn\u011b pod 2 %) na cca 2,4 %. V\u00a0m\u00e9di\u00edch se u\u017e objevily odhady, \u017ee by to mohlo b\u00fdt a\u017e kolem 3 %, co\u017e se ale ve sv\u011btle v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysoko.<\/p>\n

Schodek rozpo\u010dtu skute\u010dn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt 500 miliard<\/h6>\n

Vl\u00e1da \u010cR na n\u00e1vrh ministryn\u011b financ\u00ed schv\u00e1lila\u00a0n\u00e1vrh novely z\u00e1kona<\/strong><\/a><\/span>\u00a0o st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu na rok 2021, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u00a0tomto n\u00e1vrhu je jako p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd kone\u010dn\u00fd schodek uvedena suma 500 miliard K\u010d.<\/p>\n

Je to hroziv\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, ale pokud vezmeme schodek 320 mld. K\u010d v\u00a0nyn\u00ed platn\u00e9 verzi z\u00e1kona a s\u00a0touto verz\u00ed paraleln\u011b schv\u00e1len\u00fd da\u0148ov\u00fd bal\u00edk a nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zdravotn\u00ed situaci v\u00a0\u010cesku jako v\u00fdchodiska, pak u\u017e ten p\u016flbilion nen\u00ed zas tak \u0161okuj\u00edc\u00ed a vl\u00e1da v\u00a0d\u016fvodov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b k\u00a0n\u00e1vrhu novely z\u00e1kona tu 180miliardovou zm\u011bnu schodku jak\u017etak\u017e v\u011brohodn\u011b vy\u010d\u00edsluje (sice je tam nap\u0159. vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdb\u011br odvod\u016f d\u00edky lep\u0161\u00edmu makrov\u00fdvoji, ale proti tomu krom\u011b dopad\u016f da\u0148ov\u00e9ho bal\u00edku je\u0161t\u011b nav\u00edc vliv n\u00e1klad\u016f na kompenzace za del\u0161\u00ed uz\u00e1v\u011bru \u010d\u00e1sti ekonomiky, n\u00e1klady na n\u00e1kup vakc\u00edn, \u0161krtnut\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z\u00a0N\u00e1stroje obnovy a odolnosti aj.). Zde mus\u00edme m\u00edt na pam\u011bti, \u017ee sestavov\u00e1n\u00ed onoho rozpo\u010dtu se schodkem 320 miliard korun bylo dokon\u010deno n\u011bkdy cca v\u00a0p\u016flce \u0159\u00edjna, kdy je\u0161t\u011b mnoz\u00ed z\u00a0n\u00e1s ne\u010dekali, \u017ee p\u0159ijde dal\u0161\u00ed vlna koronakrize a bude trvat mo\u017en\u00e1 a\u017e do jara.<\/p>\n

Pokud se n\u00e1m zd\u00e1 t\u011bch 500 miliard jako moc, tak probl\u00e9m hledejme hlavn\u011b v\u00a0tom, jak vzniklo on\u011bch u\u017e nyn\u00ed platn\u00fdch 320 miliard a jak mohlo (p\u0159ed dv\u011bma m\u011bs\u00edci) doj\u00edt ke schv\u00e1len\u00ed onoho da\u0148ov\u00e9ho bal\u00edku sr\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00edho da\u0148ov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy st\u00e1tu o vysok\u00e9 des\u00edtky miliard korun.<\/p>\n

Je nutno z\u00e1kon novelizovat? N\u011bjak\u00fd z\u00e1kon o st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu na dan\u00fd rok platit mus\u00ed (jinak je nutno nasadit tzv. rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 provizorium). V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se skute\u010dn\u00fd schodek hospoda\u0159en\u00ed b\u011bhem roku vyv\u00edj\u00ed v\u00a0rozporu s\u00a0\u010d\u00edslem uveden\u00fdm v platn\u00e9m z\u00e1kon\u011b o st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu na dan\u00fd rok, ned\u011bje se vlastn\u011b nic; rozhodn\u011b z\u00a0toho vl\u00e1d\u011b nebo ministerstvu financ\u00ed nehroz\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd formalizovan\u00fd postih (p\u0159ed 20 lety se objevil n\u00e1vrh na povinnost vl\u00e1dy v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ur\u010dit\u00e9 odchylky po\u017e\u00e1dat Sn\u011bmovnu o vysloven\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry, ale tento n\u00e1vrh tehdy nebyl p\u0159ijat). To nejhor\u0161\u00ed, co se m\u016f\u017ee vl\u00e1d\u011b st\u00e1t, jsou lamentace opozice.<\/p>\n

Pokud tedy vl\u00e1da p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0n\u00e1vrhem novely kv\u016fli nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho schodku a pokud je tento nov\u00fd schodek realistick\u00fd, lze takov\u00fd n\u00e1vrh na novelizaci z\u00e1kona ch\u00e1pat vlastn\u011b jako odraz docela solidn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b politick\u00e9 kultury: vl\u00e1da tak v\u0161em (nap\u0159\u00edklad i finan\u010dn\u00edm trh\u016fm, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1sledn\u011b musej\u00ed b\u00fdt ochotny dluh vl\u00e1d\u011b financovat) p\u0159edem signalizuje, \u017ee dosavadn\u00ed odhad kone\u010dn\u00e9ho schodku u\u017e je mimo realitu a jak\u00fd schodek se asi tak d\u00e1 na konci roku o\u010dek\u00e1vat.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pochybnosti bychom asi m\u011bli m\u00edt ohledn\u011b rozsahu podp\u016frn\u00fdch program\u016f pro zasa\u017een\u00e9 firmy, jako je Antivirus nebo Covid 21 (jejich rozsah se v\u00a0novele navrhu zv\u00fd\u0161it o v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 miliard). Pokud budou ale parametry t\u011bchto program\u016f nastaveny spr\u00e1vn\u011b, tj. tak, aby nesv\u00e1d\u011bly firemn\u00ed sektor k\u00a0nadu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed, pak je v\u0161echno v\u00a0po\u0159\u00e1dku a skute\u010dn\u00fd objem t\u011bchto v\u00fddaj\u016f bude nakonec prost\u011b takov\u00fd, jak\u00fd opravdu m\u011bl b\u00fdt.<\/p>\n

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Michal SKO\u0158EPA, <\/b>ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny a \u010dlen V\u00fdboru pro rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy<\/div>\n

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  Sazba <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":216005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[128],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/16\/\u010desk\u00e1-spo\u0159itelna-logo.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216081"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=216081"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216081\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":216737,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216081\/revisions\/216737"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/216005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=216081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=216081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zakrasnejsivimperk.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=216081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}